The Hindu : A crucial poll for the polity

Online edition of India's National Newspaper
Saturday, Dec 07, 2002

Opinion

Opinion - News Analysis

A crucial poll for the polity

By K.K. Katyal

With the pollsters differing widely on the performance of the two major political formations, the BJP and the Congress, in the Gujarat Assembly elections next week, one could only discuss the wider implications of the outcome at this stage. There is no denying the point that its impact at the Central level will be powerful. Rarely has the development in a State had the potential for moulding the country's politics, for good or for bad, as will be the case with Gujarat.

The scale and quality of the change — or transformation — will, however, vary in each of the three eventualities — victory for the BJP, Congress ascendancy, or a hung Assembly. Though the BJP has modified its earlier forecast of a sweep, it, nonetheless, exudes confidence about a clear majority in the 182-strong House. The success of the BJP — the Modi brand of it — is certain to have drastic repercussions not only in Gujarat but also in the national context.

In the State, the BJP, under the stewardship of the caretaker Chief Minister, Narendra Modi, has completely identified itself with the Vishwa Hindu Parishad platform. If returned to power, he will feel vindicated and emboldened to pursue the extreme line, advocated by it. Not only that, it would mean a major shift in the internal balance in the Sangh Parivar as a whole, pushing the BJP towards chauvinism, normally associated with the VHP. The VHP and other extreme outfits have thrown their weight behind Modi-ism and are actively campaigning for it. They would seek to make full use of the gain accruing to them in Gujarat in the country as a whole. It would mean tremendous pressure on the Prime Minister, Atal Behari Vajpayee, making it difficult for him to stick to the "moderate'' agenda of the National Democratic Alliance. Even in the absence of such a pressure, Mr. Vajpayee found it hard to continue the tightrope walk, necessitated by buffeting from two different sides — the non-BJP component of the NDA and the hawks of the Parivar.

Last month, for instance, the Prime Minister first opposed the VHP plan for a `vijay yatra' from Godhra, supported the Election Commission ban on it and disapproved of the criticism of the constitutional authority from the BJP platform. Later, he diluted his criticism by his words and actions.

The BJP, both as an organisation and in the parliamentary sphere, as the head of the NDA, will be pushed into adopting an aggressive line at the national level.

In the immediate context, it may mean a tough line against Pakistan and disapproval of the Mufti Government's initiatives in Jammu and Kashmir to reach out to the alienated sections. The party will be tempted to make full use of the Hindutva card in the crucial Assembly elections next year and, if successful, in the 2004 general elections. At the Centre, the NDA would not be able to maintain the pretence of moderation and the minorities are certain to feel pressured. What it means to the country — and the polity — is not hard to imagine.

The present balance in the Parivar will, however, not be disturbed materially, in case the BJP wins by a slight margin. The BJP and the Prime Minister then will be no longer defensive in their advocacy of the NDA agenda. The VHP may take either of the two conflicting positions — it may either call for increased militancy or lie low for a while.

A hung Assembly or the victory of the Congress, on the other hand, will be a setback to the proponents of the Hindutva agenda. Within the Parivar, they will be in no position to mount pressure on the Prime Minister. The Congress, in that case, would bring the 16th State under its control and take a major step in its bid for return to power at the Centre. A big step but not a giant leap, for which it would need to recover the lost ground in U.P. and Bihar. It will be better placed in next year's Assembly elections where the anti-incumbency factor would pose a big challenge.

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