The Hindu : The Putin visit

Online edition of India's National Newspaper
Wednesday, Dec 11, 2002

Opinion

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The Putin visit

By Nirmala Joshi

Indian and Russian interests in "our common neighbourhood" coincide to a great extent, which augurs well for bilateral relations.

THE RUSSIAN President, Vladimir Putin, has just concluded a whirlwind visit to India reaping rich dividends at the bilateral level. Russian attempts to impart fresh initiatives into the partnership that has withstood the test of time were successful. The tone of the visit was set by Mr. Putin himself — positive and constructive even before he set out on his foreign sojourn. In an interview to The Hindu, he unambiguously endorsed the Indian position on an issue of crucial significance to it. It must have been music to Indian ears to hear Mr. Putin extending wholehearted support on the issue of cross-border terrorism. In fact, the Russian position on this issue is the closest to the Indian one. In a similar vein, the Prime Minister, Atal Behari Vajpayee, said "we can depend on Russia in an hour of trial". It was amidst this atmosphere of warmth and bonhomie that Mr. Putin arrived in India to a warm welcome. The focus of the deliberations was, however, on intensifying the bilateral content of the strategic partnership.

Several agreements were signed. The most important being the decision to set up a Joint Working Group (JWG) on Terrorism. A memorandum of understanding (MoU) on cooperation in the field of telecommunication was another major agreement signed between the two countries. A protocol on Intellectual Property Rights was also concluded. In an attempt to diversify bilateral relations, the Karnataka Chief Minister, S. M. Krishna, signed an agreement to enhance cooperation with the Samara region of Russia. The Delhi Declaration drew pointed attention to the weakest component of Indo-Russian relations — the economic aspect. It was recognised that the true potential in this sphere has not yet been tapped. A decision to earnestly explore all avenues to strengthen the economic interaction was taken. The talks also covered issues of importance such as energy security, civilian nuclear energy and space technology. Discussions on placing the ongoing defence cooperation on an even more solid foundations were held, but no details were available.

At the regional level, Indian and Russian interests continue to coincide in a large measure. In fact, the compatibility of their geopolitical and security interests in the Central Asian region is the major input into the evolution of the strategic partnership. Being multi-ethnic and pluralist societies, India and Russia faced common challenges to their integrity from the forces of religious extremism, aggressive nationalism, separatism and terrorism. In addition, drug trafficking, smuggling in small weapons and organised crime have further complicated the situation. In the Indian and the Russian perception, Afghanistan was the hub of international terrorism hence they extended support to the opposition forces — the Northern Alliance. India and Russia were of the view that the stability of Central Asia was crucial to them. Since the challenges were primarily regional in nature the presence of Russian troops on the Tajik-Afghan border was able to contain the hordes of extremism spreading into Central Asia. Russia was the chief guarantor of peace in the region and such an arrangement was compatible with the Indian interests.

The military presence of the international coalition forces led by the U.S. has radically changed the geopolitical situation in Central Asia. Terrorism is no longer a regional phenomenon, but a global one. A global phenomenon has to be fought globally. It is possible that the campaign against terrorism could be a protracted one, which means that the military presence of the coalition forces could stretch for years. In the process, the regional context has undergone a fundamental change. The U.S. is the new, powerful player in Central Asia. The military presence of the West is a factor of stability in the region. However, the earlier arrangement of ensuring security and stability has got diffused. New pressures on Indo-Russian relations are being exerted. The changing dynamics of the region have opened up new opportunities for India and Russia to come to a better understanding with the U.S. Indian decision makers believe that the U.S. alone could restrain Pakistan and compel it to stop cross-border terrorism. For Russia, the opportunity is to procure Western credits and investments. Consequently, India and Russia have supported the American-led campaign against global terrorism.

A new trend that has emerged is the near similarity in the approaches of Russia and the U.S. on the question of peace and security in South Asia. Their paramount concern is to prevent any outbreak of hostilities between Indian and Pakistan as such an eventuality could easily escalate into a nuclear war. Another apprehension voiced by Mr. Putin recently was that weapons of mass destruction could fall into the hands of terrorists or bandits. This would give the terrorists awesome power in their hands. The Russian approach as spelt out by the Foreign Minister, Igor Ivanov, was to create an arch of stability in the region. Moreover, the nuclear issue could detract attention from the campaign against terrorism. In that fight the support and cooperation of Pakistan is crucial.

While cooperating with the coalition forces against terrorism, at another level Russia is trying to forge a consensus among the countries on issues of global concern. Russia is also trying to play a more active role in the region. The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) now has a formal structure. The focus of the SCO is also to combat terrorism and several measures to this effect have been initiated. Possibly India could seek membership of the SCO. It has also been proposed to convert the Collective Security Treaty into a regional organisation. How effective these investments would emerge in ensuring regional security is difficult to say at this juncture. Viewed from this larger perspective of its interests, Russia has sought to engage Pakistan. On the other hand, India is maintaining its adversarial posture vis-a-vis Pakistan.

In pursuance of this objective, Russia has not only favoured a dialogue between India and Pakistan, but had also tried to act as facilitator. At the Conference on Initiative and Confidence building in Asia (CICA) in Alma Aty in June 2002, Mr. Putin tried to bring the Indian and the Pakistani leaders to talk to each other, though in vain. However, Russia set up JWGs with Pakistan, one on terrorism and the second on stability, in August 2002. The first meeting of the JWG on terrorism, was held in Msocow recently. These differing approaches on Pakistan have not affected the friendly tenor of Indo-Russian relations. As already mentioned, the Russian position on cross-border terrorism is clear. The need to dismantle the terrorist infrastructure in Pakistan and on territory controlled by it was mentioned in the Delhi Declaration issued at the end of the Putin visit. However, Indian and Russian interests in "our common neighbourhood" coincide to a great extent, which augurs well for bilateral relations.

It is in the context of forging a consensus among the nations of the region that Mr. Putin revived the idea of promoting trilateral cooperation among India, Russia and China. There are, no doubt, severe constraints to trilateral cooperation. Nevertheless, the idea is worth pursuing especially when the dominant tendency of the present day world order is cooperation. Russian activism in the region it hopes would lead to multipolarity.

Apart from their immediate interests and concerns, India and Russia share a wide commonality of views on the other issues. On Iraq, there was unanimity of views opposing any unilateral use of force. Both the countries would like the United Nations to play a central role in promoting international security in a multi-polar world. To conclude, India's ties with Russia are on a firm footing; Mr. Putin's visit has added new dynamism to them.

(The writer is Professor, Centre for Russian, Central Asian and East Europe Studies, School of International Studies, JNU).

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