The Hindu : India's moment of truth on Iraq

Online edition of India's National Newspaper
Wednesday, Dec 11, 2002

Opinion

Opinion - News Analysis

India's moment of truth on Iraq

By Subramanian Swamy

The United States is systematically preparing the ground for leading a coalition of countries to invade Iraq and bring about a "regime change'' in that country. I expect that soon, and not later than early next year, the U.S. will move decisively in this regard.

Regime change means toppling Saddam Hussein and his associates from power. The question for us is: what should be India's stand? The usual equivocating position to which the Prime Minister, Atal Behari Vajpayee, is congenitally habituated will be disastrous for the country, because U.S. action in Iraq will fundamentally alter all the strategic equations in the world. India cannot be, therefore, kept in the margins by our ineptness. If the U.S. succeeds in regime change, it will control directly or indirectly the world's oil supply. Since oil is crucial for the mobility of any country's armed forces, this control will make the U.S. the arbiter of how long any war can last in most parts of the world. Hence, we should recognise the paradigm shift that will take place in the global power structure. India will be sidelined for failing to make a choice today as to where we shall stand when the U.S.-led forces invade Iraq.

If the U.S.-led forces invade Iraq, victory for them is highly probable. But that is not the reason why we should support the U.S. war efforts. India needs to be counted this time without fail, unlike in Afghanistan, because our long-term interests are vitally involved. This time, it will not be like the 1991 Gulf War when I was a Minister in the Chandra Shekhar Government. At that time, there was near unanimity about the war, and for India to go along with that consensus should have been an easy decision for my Government. But even then, there was a furore for having given the U.S. air force landing rights, with Congress cold war leftovers crawling out of the woodwork to make the ruckus. Fortunately, we in the Government then had stuck to our decision as a consequence of which it became possible for India to ensure that Indians were let back into Kuwait. I had to make a special trip to Kuwait after the Gulf War to arrange that, since much of West Asia angrily remembered I.K. Gujral, as V.P. Singh's Foreign Minister in September 1990 travelling to Baghdad, in a warm embrace with Saddam Hussein, and later urging resident Indians to support Iraq in Kuwait.

The Vajpayee Government is not as strong or decisive as Chandra Shekhar's was. Already, financial interests have played a role to make India flout the U.N. sanctions in Iraq. The Prime Minister has also made a statement that is in consonance with the old West Asia line of Congress, which is full of ifs and buts, with the bottom line that action against Iraq should be put off. There is only one argument that can be advanced for opposing the U.S. invasion. That is, Iraq under Saddam Hussein had been consistently India's supporter on Kashmir. During the oil crisis of the 1970s, he had shipped crude oil to India at reasonable prices. This argument is however weak because the issue today is not whether Iraq is being harassed by one of its neighbours, or needs urgently some economic good for which India can return a favour. The issue for India today is whether the continuation of Saddam Hussein as the leader of Iraq will mean that his country will acquire nuclear weapons and that Saddam will then use them against Israel. That Saddam is determined to acquire nuclear weapons is known to all but the most gullible. What is not so well known is that Saddam has an evangelical determination to use that and other mass destruction weapons he can lay his hands on, against Israel to wipe it out — or even be martyred for that goal. Already, he has ordered financing of those families in the West Bank and Gaza who allow their siblings to become suicide bombers and kill innocent Israelis. India cannot equivocate, therefore, when there is a possibility of Israel's existence being threatened since it is one country that has long-term strategic value for India in terms of R&D, weaponry and intelligence on terrorism. Israel has helped us unconditionally in our defence preparedness since it came into being in 1948 by a U.N. Resolution. In private conversations with Iraqi diplomats, I am told that Saddam wants Israel to be folded up, and all non-Arab Jews, including Cochin and Baghdadi Jews [from Mumbai], to go back. Hence, I find all this U.N. weapons inspectors' routine ridiculous and a charade. Instead, Iraq should be given an ultimatum — recognise the state of Israel or face a war. The U.S. is shy to issue this ultimatum because of its Arab client-states. But India can, and as a friend of Iraq, should. Instead, we find Mr. Vajpayee and his de facto comrade Sonia Gandhi making convoluted statements about the situation which signify nothing — neither for nor against, and thus probably India will end up being condemned by both sides.

Since Russia and China have no stakes at present, while France wants to be noticed and that's all, the U.S. will have its way if it wants to go to war with Iraq. There is, therefore, an expectation that the regime change war will achieve its primary aim within three weeks. The war in Iraq has nothing to do with the September 11 terrorist attacks. The Iraqi dictator is not a religious fundamentalist but a confirmed secularist and a modern man. But he suffers from a Hitler-like megalomania to destroy Israel for no reason other than his pathological determination to become the leader of the Arab world on the graves of the Jews. India cannot sit and watch this happen. We must stand against it and be counted in history for it.

(The writer is a former Union Minister for Commerce and Law)

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