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Liberia's woes

THE PEOPLE OF Liberia have been so exhausted by the deprivations of war that there is little energy left to celebrate the ouster of the abominable Charles Taylor as President. Any relief that Liberians may feel over the warlord's departure into exile in Nigeria will be tempered by the awareness that their country faces a very uncertain future. That Mr. Taylor has been replaced as President by his comrade in arms, Moses Blah, who has just as notorious a reputation for brutality, might be the lightest of the burdens the nation has to contend with. Mr. Blah has promised to hand over power to a transitional government soon. The presence in the country of a multi-national peace-keeping force and sustained international pressure will probably ensure that Mr. Blah keeps his pledge. However, there is no sign that a more enlightened political leadership capable of helping Liberia recover from over 14 years of external and internal strife will emerge. The rebel forces, loosely grouped in an organisation called Liberians for Reconciliation and Democracy (LURD), are as rapacious as the troops that remain loyal to Mr. Taylor and his associates. A particularly horrific aspect of the West African wars is that virtually all sides have used child soldiers as frontline troops. Many stages will have to be crossed over many years before Liberians can recover a sense of normality.

That other countries of Africa have stepped forward to help the people of Liberia offers some hope in an otherwise bleak scenario. South Africa and Nigeria have already despatched soldiers to secure a ceasefire between the warring groups. Their presence offers a measure of protection to almost half of Liberia's two million people who have taken refuge in the capital, Monrovia, and other cities. The peace-keeping force is expected to be reinforced by contingents from the other countries of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). In agreeing to strengthen the peace-keeping force, the countries of ECOWAS have demonstrated a keen understanding that Liberia's problems afflict the whole region. ECOWAS must however ensure that the member countries do not spark off another round of war by squabbling among themselves over shares in Liberia's timber and diamond trade. In the past, intra-regional interventions in Africa have degenerated into fratricidal conflicts for similar reasons. Nigeria, as the exiled warlord's host, bears a special responsibility to see that his menace remains under check. Mr. Taylor, who has built an intricate web of relationships with other leaders in the region, is bound to manipulate these connections as he tries to fulfil his vow to return to power. Nigeria must restrain Mr. Taylor even if it is unable to hand him over to the international court, which has indicted him on charges of crimes against humanity for the atrocities committed by Liberian troops in Sierra Leone a few years ago.

It is far from certain that ECOWAS will be able to restore peace in Liberia through its efforts alone. Several African leaders have requested the United States to play a major role in the peace-restoration and humanitarian efforts. By sending troops and securing Mr. Taylor's ouster, ECOWAS has met the two conditions that the Bush administration had set for the insertion of its troops into Liberia. While a 2300 strong Marine Expeditionary Force is anchored less than a hundred miles offshore from Monrovia, the U. S. has deployed only a small liaison team thus far. Its new-found interest in West African oil may possibly induce it to opt for a stronger military presence. This is something that must be closely watched.

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