The Hindu : SIGNIFICANCE OF SHAHEEN

Online edition of India's National Newspaper
Friday, Mar 12, 2004

Opinion

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SIGNIFICANCE OF SHAHEEN - II

THE RECENT TEST of Shaheen-II, Pakistan's latest and most modern missile, extends that country's strategic reach to all of India. In 1999, soon after India first flew its all-solid Agni-II missile with a range of over 2,000 km, Pakistan responded by testing Ghauri-II. Although Pakistani officials claimed that Ghauri-II could reach targets more than 2,000 km away, the missile was thought to have a range of about 1,500 km (with one Indian analyst putting it closer to 1,000 km). Shaheen-II appears to be a match for Agni-II — a two-stage solid propellant missile that can be fired quickly (eliminating the delay associated with fuelling a liquid propellant missile) and with a range of over 2,000 km. Meanwhile, India has already announced plans to test Agni-III, which has a range of over 3,000 km, this year.

A sober reading would suggest that the testing of Shaheen-II at this juncture is intended less as a warning to India than as a reassurance to President Pervez Musharraf's hardline critics who worry that, under American pressure, he might sacrifice Pakistan's strategic capabilities. A curious facet of Pakistan's missile development has been the playing out in this field also of the longstanding rivalry between Abdul Qadeer Khan and the Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission (PAEC). Dr. Khan is a hero in Pakistan for creating its uranium enrichment capability and is now under a cloud for operating an illicit and highly profitable international nuclear network. He and his cohorts at Khan Laboratories are thought to have got liquid propellant missile technology from North Korea in exchange for nuclear designs and information. Solid propulsion technology, which is more appropriate for missiles, was championed first by the Space and Upper Atmospheric Research Commission, and later by the National Development Complex under the PAEC. The Ghauri missiles came from the Khan Laboratories, and the Hatf and Shaheen missiles from the latter. There has been a ding-dong battle between the two camps. With Ghauri-II, the Khan Laboratories could claim to have given Pakistan not only the atomic bomb but also the capability to land it over most of India. After Dr. Khan's disgrace, President Musharraf and the PAEC needed to demonstrate that Pakistan's strategic capability had not been imperilled. The launch of Shaheen-II, a more modern missile than the Ghauri-II and with a significantly greater range, is obviously intended to send a reassuring message to Pakistanis. It is noteworthy that General Musharraf spoke about the forthcoming Shaheen test at the news conference he held last month to announce the pardon for Dr. Khan. Although many Indian and U.S. analysts take the view that Shaheen-I and Shaheen-II are based on similar Chinese missiles, some Indian space experts think that Pakistan could have developed the solid propulsion technology within the country, just as India did for its launch vehicle programme. If there was Chinese help, it would probably have been in the missile's onboard navigation and guidance systems.

India needs to recognise that the Shaheen-II test, while most unfortunate and ill-timed, does not shift the balance of power in favour of Pakistan. Even before Kargil, the Bharatiya Janata Party-led Government had begun massive upgradation of India's conventional and strategic capability. However, as Europe has already discovered, strengthening the bonds of cooperation and friendship is a better guarantee of security than stockpiling lethal military hardware. Nuclear weaponisation has made South Asia a much more dangerous place; mutually acceptable restraints on the induction and deployment of nuclear weapons would be very much in order. India and Pakistan, sundered at birth, are at last slowly but seriously stepping in the direction of detente. Nothing must be allowed to hinder that process.

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