The Hindu : National : BJP still hopes for a bare majority

Online edition of India's National Newspaper
Saturday, Oct 16, 2004

National

National

BJP still hopes for a bare majority

By Neena Vyas

NEW DELHI, OCT. 15. Whatever be the results of the Maharashtra Assembly elections, one thing that is clear is that over the last 12 to 18 months the Congress-Nationalist Congress Party combine has been able to recover some of the ground it lost over the first 42 to 48 months of its regime.

Just over a year ago, senior Bharatiya Janata Party leaders were sure that the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance would win easily any election in Maharashtra. The BJP still hopes to get a bare majority, but it acknowledges that it has been hard work for the last five months since the Lok Sabha results, and even after that the party cannot be sure what the ballot boxes hold.

The first shock to the BJP-Sena was the Lok Sabha result. "We became acutely aware that the loss of power in New Delhi was bound to have some impact on voters in Maharashtra ... there are always a large number of voters who feel comfortable with the idea of a State Government which can work in harmony with the Centre," said a BJP leader who has spent the last five months in Maharashtra.

Corrective step

When the reputation of the State Government was at its worst, the Congress took the first corrective step by changing its Chief Minister to bring in Sushilkumar Shinde. "Even at that time the Congress had possibly calculated that Dalit votes could make or break them ... the rising influence of Mayawati (Bahujan Samaj Party), especially in Vidarbha, has shown this to be true.'' Then much later, the party persuaded its alliance partner, the NCP, to drop the then Deputy Chief Minister, Chhagan Bhujbal, when it became clear that he had become a liability.

BJP sources have said that the Sena chief, Bal Thackeray, was the first in the State to talk about free power for farmers, but the ruling combine put it on its agenda although it first criticised Mr. Thackeray. Before polling date arrived the Maharashtra Government ensured that a good percentage of the 24-lakh farmers received bills showing all their arrears wiped clean.

"The State Government gave a cheque for Rs. 395 crores to the Maharashtra State Electricity Board which in turn paid back to the Government Rs. 395 crores borrowed from it earlier. This transaction enabled the MSEB to wipe out farmers' arrears, and naturally that was bound to have some electoral impact," sources said.

Several other decisions, kept pending for several years, were taken before polling date. A BJP leader said that around 18 lakh people drawing salaries from Government coffers got the benefit of 50 per cent of their dearness allowance merged with their salaries; honorarium given to anganwadi workers was increased; police `patils' in villages got an increase in their emoluments; interest on loans taken by farmers were waived; a good package was given to orange growers in and around Nagpur (although this had a reverse impact on mango growers who felt discriminated); and drought relief was released on time.

"We were able to counter this by keeping focussed on anti-incumbency. "Behaal kisan, berozgar naujawan, bijli se sabhi pareshan" (farmers in distress, young men without a job, and electricity which troubles all) was the BJP-Sena's main slogan.

Besides, house-to-house contacts, meetings in practically every village and district, strict micromanagement with fixed responsibility and accountability, attention to voters' lists (the party claimed that nearly 15 lakh voters were registered at the instance of its workers), and managing candidate selection with "minimum rebellion,'' were aspects of its election management that the BJP hopes will pay off.

For the time being though, it is wait and watch and keep fingers crossed till the ballot boxes are opened.

Printer friendly page
Send this article to Friends by E-Mail

National