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Saturday, Mar 12, 2005

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RULING FRONT TROUBLES

THE CONGRESS HIGH command is exhibiting an unprecedented readiness to take disciplinary action against the dissident group led by the former Chief Minister, K. Karunakaran, in Kerala. By suspending Mr. Karunakaran's son, K. Muraleedharan, from the party, the high command stood by the hard line it took in the run-up to the rally organised by the dissident group in Kozhikode on March 9. Rather than pick on some local organiser of the rally, it went for Mr. Muraleedharan in the hope that the disciplinary action would dissuade other senior leaders from identifying themselves with the dissidents. Another decisive measure, the whip issued to the Congress Members of the Legislative Assembly to vote in favour of the Government resolutions on March 9, had the intended effect: none of the MLAs owing allegiance to Mr. Karunakaran attended the rally. Under similar circumstances in the past, the high command would have chosen a course of soft options, allowing matters to drift fearing that Mr. Karunakaran might precipitate a crisis. On his part, Mr. Karunakaran, after indulging in some belligerent posturing, would always step back from the brink, with some face-saving concessions in hand. Now, however, the high command, without the pressure of an impending general election, appears intent on using the opportunity to rein in the dissidents.

But the crisis in the Congress is unlikely to blow over soon. The MLAs in the Karunakaran camp, restrained momentarily by the possibility of disqualification, are expected to attend the next rally of the group in Thiruvananthapuram on March 12. Other than ordering the suspension of three youth wing leaders, the high command refrained from going any further with the threat of disciplinary action. Moreover, while Mr. Muraleedharan was suspended, no action was taken against Mr. Karunakaran, who is undoubtedly the chief architect of the dissidence. Mr. Karunakaran got away with daring the high command to take action against him. The strategy seems to be to leave some space for him to retrace his steps. The dissident camp too seems alive to the possibility of a patch-up. Significantly, while the Chief Minister, Oommen Chandy, was unmistakably the target of the rally, the Congress president, Sonia Gandhi, was spared. Indeed, the dais of the rally had her portrait alongside those of other members of the Nehru-Gandhi family. Just as the high command adopted the `willing to strike, but afraid to wound' tactic, the Karunakaran camp seemed hesitant to go for the kill.

How the current crisis plays out depends on several factors, including the attitude of the Indian Union Muslim League, a major ally of the Congress-led United Democratic Front, and the Left Democratic Front led by the Communist Party of India (Marxist). Mr. Muraleedharan has hinted that there could be realignment within the UDF. The IUML remains in the UDF only because it sees no other option at this point of time: the LDF will not have a communal party in its fold. Already, the Karunakaran camp has the support of three smaller constituents of the UDF, the Kerala Congress (Jacob), the Kerala Congress (Balakrishna Pillai), and the Thamarakshan group of the Revolutionary Socialist Party (Bolshevik). All these groups would be happy to switch over to the Opposition, if only the Left parties would have them. However, the LDF, having swept the last Lok Sabha election in Kerala, is under no compulsion to take more partners. Other than a patch-up with the high command, the only option for the Karunakaran camp now is to risk a third front in politically polarised Kerala.

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