The Hindu : International : Uncertainty in Egypt over Mubarak's successor

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Friday, Apr 01, 2005

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International

Uncertainty in Egypt over Mubarak's successor

CAIRO, MARCH 31. Hosni Mubarak has no obvious successor and has yet to say whether he will run for another term. His son, long expected to take over, denies having any presidential ambitions. And street protests are becoming more widespread and frequent, their chants bolder than anything heard here in decades.

Egypt has slowly slipped into a state of political uncertainty in recent weeks — a mode that's highly unusual in a nation where continuity, or some would say stagnation, has long prevailed: presidents stay in office until they die, change is not always welcome and security takes precedence over almost everything else.

Serious risks

The new climate poses serious risks for a nation that has gone 50 years or more without genuine democratic rule and where people have grown accustomed to strong leaders. Fear of authorities, a sentiment constantly reinforced by reports of systematic torture of political detenus and criminals, appears to have somewhat diminished in recent months, at least among Opposition supporters.

``Too much has been set loose,'' said Rosemary Hollis, the top Middle East (West Asia) expert at the Royal Institute of International Affairs in London. ``The regime believes people need a strong leadership and will rally behind Mr. Mubarak when things get messy. But it maybe too late to clamp down and go back to how things were.''

Some suspect that Mr. Mubarak's grip on the country might be loosening, or that his regime is showing signs of weakness in the face of domestic and external pressure. On Wednesday, one day after Cairo's security chief warned that authorities would strictly enforce laws requiring groups to get advance permission for protests, thousands ignored his warning and tried to stage anti-government protests in Cairo and two other cities. Police blocked activists in Cairo from gathering at Parliament.

Three days earlier, hundreds of protesters from an outlawed but powerful Islamic group played cat-and-mouse with police in the heart of Cairo, bringing the city's normally heavy traffic to a standstill for several hours. Police arrested scores of protesters.

Explosive mix

The potentially explosive mix in today's Egypt is made worse by high unemployment rates and widespread poverty in an Egypt where many are embittered by their perceived disenfranchisement and may join the street protests to air their own grievances.

The fallout from an unstable Egypt would travel beyond the country's borders. What goes on in Egypt, the most populous Arab nation with 72 million people and a close U.S. ally since the mid-1970s, affects regional security. It also affects the country's role as a key mediator in the Arab-Israeli conflict and a partner in the U.S.-led war on terror.

Mr. Mubarak's health — he will be 77 in May and has knee, ear and back problems but is generally fit for his age — feeds the uncertainty, together with his frequent complaints in recent media interviews about his workload. In his 23 years in office, Mr. Mubarak also has left vacant the job of Vice-President, leaving Egyptians wondering about his successor. — AP

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