The Hindu : Opinion / News Analysis : France on edge over EU Constitution

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Thursday, May 19, 2005

Opinion

Opinion - News Analysis

France on edge over EU Constitution

Vaiju Naravane

The French are undecided as the May 29 referendum on the European Constitution nears.

WITH JUST under two weeks to go before the referendum on the European Constitution, public opinion in France is like a yoyo. Latest opinion polls indicate the "no" vote will carry the day on May 29 with a convincing 53 per cent.

Last week the same was being said about the "yes" vote and the week before the "no" camp was again on top.

Pollsters and analysts are convinced that a large chunk of the French electorate is still undecided, agonising over whether it should be voting for what "yes" politicians have derided as "narrow, outdated, strictly French interests in a globalised world" or whether it should see France "embrace a greater unity since strength lies in size and numbers in an increasingly competitive world."

The "yes" camp has warned that one "cannot be European and still vote "no"; that a "no" would seriously undermine French influence and prestige not just within Europe but in the rest of the world; that a "no" would deal a body blow to France and to European construction from which it would take decades to recover.

Anger against Government

But with a groundswell of resentment against the sheer ineptitude of the Government led by Jean-Pierre Raffarin, with a Jacques Chirac who appears old, jaded and out of touch, the French are quite likely to seize this opportunity to deliver a resounding slap in the face to their rulers.

Over the last two months almost 20 opinion polls have confirmed the "no" trend with indications that between 53 and 55 per cent of those casting their vote will reject the landmark Constitution. Pierre Giacometti, who heads the IPSOS polling institute, believes the "no" camp will win. "Not because people are angry with the government, but because they are seriously convinced this is not a good document."

France is one of the founding members of the European Union and has been, with Germany, a key player in all EU affairs. It was one of the most enthusiastic backers of the Constitution project and manoeuvred endlessly to have former French President Valery Giscard d'Estaing elected to be president of the Constitutional Convention. The document European nations are now being asked to ratify is the first major step towards unification.

It is supposed to simplify the decision-making process, and make the Union more democratic by giving increased powers to the EU parliament. It is also expected to spawn a new foreign and defence policy and set Europe on its way to becoming a federation of states that could one day rival the United States.

A French "no" to the document will in all likelihood bury those dreams. The text will become inapplicable and meaningless.

A majority of the French population was in favour of approving the document until a couple of months ago when doubts began creeping in and the "no" camp began making serious inroads into what was complacently assumed to be a given. The country's two major parties, the Socialists and President Jacques Chirac's ruling right wing UMP, are both supporting the "yes" vote, although there is a fringe of rebellious MPs within both groupings campaigning hard for a rejection of the document.

Ironically, the extremes from both sides of the political spectrum, the Communists and the ultra-nationalists such as Jean-Marie Le Pen and Philippe de Villiers, find themselves on the same side of the fence. The ultra-nationalists oppose the treaty on several grounds — it will open the way for the accession of Muslim Turkey with its huge population and frightening demographics, that it will allow more foreigners to snatch jobs away from the French and that France will lose its sovereignty. The Leftist parties oppose the Constitution saying it will destroy France's generous policies on health, employment and retirement and put an end to the country's mixed economy by opening doors to ultra-liberal policies prevalent in the rest of Europe.

"We have a 35-hour working week. We have a high order of social protection and job security. These rights have been won after a long struggle. We do not wish to give that up so that big capital can do what it wants — hire and fire at will. This Constitution has been designed with big money and large corporations in mind, not with the little people who make up our societies," Communist leader Marie Georges Buffet told The Hindu .

Demonstrations

With the "no" camp taking serious strides forward, President Chirac has tried in vain to use national television to convince his compatriots that a "no" vote would seriously damage France's prestige and position in the world. But he has apparently failed in his mission since the "no" camp appears to be growing each day.

Mr. Chirac said there was no "Plan B," no fallback solution, if the French rejected the Constitution. "What do we re-negotiate? We took over ten years to agree to this document and now we go back to tell them we want to re-negotiate. Renegotiate what," he asked theatrically. But then Jacques Delors, one of the most respected former Presidents of the European Commission stepped in to say the treaty could be re-negotiated. "It will take time but we can ask for a fresh document," he said. Mr. Delors' remarks fuelled the "no" camp still further forward.

Despite "yes" camp politicians' attempts to scare people into voting for the document by suggesting there is no "Plan B", officials in Brussels suggest there might be a way out. They say the treaty's "constitutional" sections such as changes to the EU's voting system, new powers granted to the European parliament, other institutional changes and the charter of fundamental could be retained while the detailed functioning of the EU is re-negotiated.

However, it is likely that other European leaders might not wish to cede to what they see as French petulance and bullyboy tactics. A "no" vote would throw Europe into serious confusion. For the moment the two sides are running neck and neck with a slight advantage to the "no" camp. But the worm might yet turn with a last minute change of heart. May 29 might still reserve a few surprises.

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