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Battles within before the big fight

Vaiju Naravane

Just eight months before the French Presidential elections, the question of who will be the final candidate is still not clear: neither among the socialists nor among the conservatives.

THE CONSERVATIVE French daily, Le Figaro, which is rooting for Interior Minister Nicolas Sarkozy as France's next President, describes the confusion in the Opposition socialist ranks as "a match within a match." The question most frequently asked of leading socialists is: Are you a candidate for the candidature of the socialist party for the next presidential election? The response is always a coy "let's wait and see, there is still a month to go before the closing date for candidatures."

The heavyweights include the former Prime Minister, Laurent Fabius; the former Industry and Finance Minister, Dominique Strauss-Kahn; the former Education and Culture Minister, Jack Lang; and of course the Socialist star and frontrunner, the former junior Education Minister, Segolene Royal. Ms. Royal is the youngest of the pack, good-looking and clever; she campaigns on the Left using the rhetoric of the Right. Two other men are waiting in the wings to seize their chance — the Socialist Party general secretary, Francois Hollande, and the former Prime Minister, Lionel Jospin.

As the Socialists concluded their annual summer conference last weekend, Le Figaro was asking itself who would remain the main players when the time came for the investiture. "Before the internal campaign begins on October 4, the last date to declare a candidacy for the investiture, another battle will have to take place," the paper explained.

The principal actors are the present frontrunner, Ms. Royal; her long-time companion and father of their four children, Mr. Hollande; and Mr. Jospin, who has emerged from the shadows in a bid to leapfrog to the top of the line-up: Ms. Royal because she is popular, Mr. Hollande by virtue of his position within the party, and Mr. Jospin because of his enormous political experience.

But, says Le Figaro, the three will not be candidates at the same time. The two men are not officially candidates yet and they could get the investiture only if the others withdraw or if Ms. Royal's popularity suddenly dips below acceptable levels.

Both men wish to incarnate the aspirations of the socialists but neither wishes to enter into an internal race for the investiture and be beaten, especially not Mr. Jospin who suffered a humiliating defeat, getting knocked out of the first round of the presidential election in 2002 by Jean-Marie Le Pen, leader of the extreme right-wing National Front.

But whatever their final decision, by keeping the question of their candidacy open, the two men are floating an audacious idea — that there could be viable alternatives to Ms. Royal, today's outright favourite. Ms. Royal has hastened to reassure the electorate that she will compete for the investiture only if she is "very well placed" in the rankings so as not to cause a split within the ranks. Mr. Jospin and Mr. Hollande too have kept their real intentions secret. If the other candidates cancel each other out during the vote by party members, both would like to step forward and become the Socialist Party's "consensus candidate."

This is the first time the socialists have organised such a run-off between aspirants to decide whom they will send into battle against the conservatives in eight months' time. What was supposed to be an exercise in participatory democracy has, in fact, led to deep divisions within the party, with the "elephants" regularly back-stabbing each other.

Not all that smooth

Ms. Royal, the most popular of the lot, has received more than her fair share of arrows. "Good looks or media manipulation does not a good candidate make," "technique cannot replace politics," and "experience counts, especially in foreign policy matters," were some of the remarks made about her supposed lack of experience. Her opponents continue to point out that she has refused all public debate. To which she replies that she will debate if it does not lead to divisions. What matters above all, she says, "is the unity of the party. The real enemy is the Right. They are the persons we must fight and vanquish. So what's the point in us, socialists, killing each other?"

With her Madonna-like good looks, her talk of family values, and her refusal to be trapped into responding to criticism howsoever harsh, Ms. Royal has played her hand masterfully. However, she lacks a concrete plan or programme, continues to evade real issues, and refuses to be nailed down saying her "project for France" will be unveiled in due time.

Nor is everything smooth as honey in the conservative camp. President Chirac has never hidden his dislike of Mr. Sarkozy, the brash, go-getting Interior Minister who was once his political heir. Eight months is a long time in politics and the wily Mr. Chirac has many an ace up his sleeve. It was initially presumed that he was grooming Prime Minister Dominique de Villepin for the conservative candidacy until the latter's miserable performance ruled him out. Now Mr. Chirac's other favourite political son, the former conservative Prime Minister, Alain Juppe, has returned to active politics and thrown the conservatives into a tizzy. Mr. Juppe was away in Canada after an 18-month bar on holding public office following a corruption charge. Now he is campaigning both for the powerful office of Mayor of Bordeaux and for a parliamentary by-election. Mr. Juppe could well be the card Mr. Chirac plays against Mr. Sarkozy. Another match within a match, as Le Figaro would say?

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