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One nationalist after another

Japan's new Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, appears set to add impetus to the revival of nationalist spirit that was a singular feature of his predecessor Junichiro Koizumi's tenure. Mr. Abe advocates shedding the defensiveness that has characterised his country's post-war approach to international affairs. He evidently believes he articulates the aspirations of compatriots born after the Second World War. He starts out with an intention to abrogate provisions of the constitution that prohibit his country's armed forces from taking aggressive action. Mr. Abe insists that such a change is necessary because the restraints prevent even those military units that are deployed in peacekeeping operations from assisting their allies effectively. The countries of East Asia, which bore the brunt of aggressive Japanese nationalism in the past and are alarmed at any signs of its revival, are not likely to buy this argument. They are well aware that Mr. Abe has been active in promoting a revisionist reinterpretation of Japanese history. He has questioned the legality of the tribunals that convicted Japan's war criminals; encouraged re-writing of textbooks so as to whitewash their crimes against humanity; and supported Mr. Koizumi's decision to pay homage at the Yasukuni shrine. China has put Mr. Abe on notice by indicating that his desire for an early summit meeting with President Hu Jintao is not likely to be fulfilled unless he categorically rules out visits to this monument to militarism and fascism.

The alliance with the United States, which has been a cornerstone of Japan's strategic policy for the last six decades, is likely to be strengthened if Mr. Abe has his way. It will certainly be of grave concern to the countries of East Asia if the new Premier follows through on plans to enhance his country's military contribution to this alliance. After North Korea tested a series of missiles in July 2006, Mr. Abe proposed that Japan should consider the option of developing the capability to launch pre-emptive strikes. While the technology to develop such a capability might not be lacking, other factors are likely to act as constraints. China, which is certain to oppose plans of this sort, can resort to several counter-measures. For one thing, Beijing can dig in its heels to deny Tokyo a permanent seat in an enlarged United Nations Security Council. It is far from certain that Prime Minister Abe will enjoy the political strength to implement his muscular nationalistic agenda, although he did win the top job with relative ease (he handily defeated two Liberal Democratic Party rivals to secure the nomination of the ruling coalition, and the opposition's candidate came off a poor second-best in the Diet showdown). With merely 13 years of experience in Parliament and one as Minister, the new Prime Minister must be considered a babe in the woods of Japan's politics.

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