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Bush puts India on Asia-Pacific map

P.S. Suryanarayana

His aim is to try and bring India into the inner circle of the U.S.' allies.

— PHOTO: AP

U.S. President George W. Bush and Chinese President Hu Jintao during the recent Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Hanoi, Vietnam.

FOR REASONS that pre-date today's dynamics of global politics, India still remains outside the inter-continental forum of Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC), which held a summit in Hanoi on November 18 and 19. Not surprisingly, in this context, the United States President, George W. Bush, has now placed India firmly on the Asia-Pacific political map. However, his move is unrelated to the politics of a possible APEC expansion. Important, therefore, is the implicit plan he revealed in a foreign policy speech in Singapore on November 16 while on his way to Hanoi. His aim, simply, is to try and bring India into the inner circle of the U.S.' friends and allies in Asia.

Outlining his intention to create a network of "partnerships" for "security cooperation in Asia," he hailed the new defence links his administration had already built with India. Mr. Bush said: "With India, we signed an historic agreement to expand defence cooperation, increase joint [military] exercises, and improve intelligence sharing." More important, he portrayed this accord as an illustrative aspect of his long-term strategy for "strengthening defence cooperation in the Asia-Pacific region." The strategy, he emphasised, was taking shape even "as we work for a Korean peninsula free of nuclear weapons."

Mr. Bush identified China as a power the U.S. was now working with to address the latest North Korean nuclear crisis. India was not mentioned as a player he would seriously engage for this purpose. But he did not cite China as a real or potential "partner" in his scheme of security-related "defence cooperation" for the future of Asia.

Maintaining that the U.S. "places the highest value on these partnerships," he listed Japan, South Korea, Australia, the Philippines, India, Vietnam, and Singapore as countries of prime relevance.

On specific military plans, the deployment of a missile defence system is the dominant theme in regard to Japan. China is wary about the real game plan, despite the U.S.' line that the system is directed only against North Korea and "rogue" players of its kind. And "deterrence," a new East Asian code for keeping nuclear-armed North Korea in check, figures as the centrepiece of the U.S.' ties with South Korea. Missile defence research, intelligence, and joint military training are key areas of U.S.-Australia cooperation.

Recent calls at Vietnamese ports by U.S. Navy ships are projected as the first exciting signs of Washington's military cooperation with Hanoi since the end of the Vietnam War. And, with Singapore, the U.S. has signed "a new strategic framework agreement." So runs Mr. Bush's catalogue, which covers India but leaves out China, in regard to the long-term U.S. military strategy in Asia.

Three developments since his Singapore address have put this new line in some additional perspective. While still in Singapore, Mr. Bush said the American Senate's approval of the U.S.-India Nuclear Cooperation Bill would "further strengthen" the existing "strategic partnership" between the "two great democracies." The handsome acclaim was tempered but not undermined by his assertion that the bill was also a "non-proliferation" measure. The coded message is that the U.S. is wary of India even while wooing it.

No less important were the atmospherics of Mr. Bush's meeting with Chinese President Hu Jintao on the APEC summit sidelines. Mr. Hu said he was "very happy about the healthy and stable expansion of China-U.S. relations." And he disclosed that their navies were, at the time of their meeting on November 19, carrying out search-and-rescue exercises along the Chinese waters. Mr. Bush, too, described China as "a very important nation" for the "security of the world" — not just Asia.

From a U.S. perspective, Mr. Hu's subsequent talks with Prime Minister Manmohan Singh in New Delhi signify a factor of growing strategic importance to global politics.

Viewed through the prism of these developments, China and Russia cannot be the powers Mr. Bush wants to checkmate by trying to weave a new web of "partnerships," which includes New Delhi but not Beijing or even Moscow as a "Eurasian" player. Intriguing, though, is that he has left unsaid what and who his real targets are. Important in this scenario is the military asymmetry between the U.S. and each of its existing and potential "partners," including India. Mr. Bush can, therefore, be seen as eager to build a multi-polar system of "bilateral defence relations" between the U.S. and several Asian countries. This does not look like an Asian version of the U.S.-led North Atlantic Treaty Organisation. Yet, a point to ponder is the prediction by a Chinese military expert, Zhu Chenghu, that a war between any two nuclear-armed powers could produce a "zero-zero" outcome.

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