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Looks like Hillary versus …

Thirteen months can be a long time in politics. No one knows this better than the dozen-plus candidates who have entered the competition to win the November 2008 presidential election in the United States. Fickleness of fortune is part of political life but the real surprise about the unusually long campaign season as it hits the mid-way point is the dearth of surprises. In the Democratic as well as Republican parts of the field, those regarded as front runners at the outset have lived up to expectations, the exception perhaps being John McCain. The Arizona Senator, who once looked a shoo-in to be the Grand Old Party’s champion, has been reduced to the status of a contender who will take on the winner of the heavyweight bout between Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney. The ex-Mayor of New York and the ex-Governor of Massachusetts are caught up in such an intense slugfest that both could emerge badly bruised and weakened. Messrs. Giuliani and Romney, who were perceived to be Republican liberals when they ran their offices, have projected themselves as hardcore right-wingers on the campaign trail. Such image makeover efforts are always risky. There is a good chance that the conservatives who make up the Republican base will eventually reject them as phoneys – and turn towards a McCain who, although regarded as a maverick, is known to hold genuine right-wing values.

As matters stand, the man (and there are only white men in this part of the field) who wins the Republican nomination will start off as the underdog in the presidential election. The strong anti-war, anti-GOP popular mood shows no signs of abating. The main Democratic contenders have been able to protect their flanks by making it clear that while they are opposed to the war, they will be staunch on national security issues. This is borne out by the manner in which Hillary Rodham Clinton, with charismatic Bill in tow, has pulled away from her party rivals. At the beginning of the campaign, the ‘national security’ issue was thrown at her face and her response has been impressive in political terms. Senator Clinton appears to have got across the message that she has the right stuff. So much so that the campaign of the Democratic front runner is now operating at two levels. As she fends off her party rivals with her left hand, she has started appealing to the general electorate with her right. With Nobel Peace laureate Al Gore declaring that he has no intention to enter the contest, Ms Clinton no longer needs to fear a threat from this quarter either. Conventional wisdom might tell you it’s too early to predict but Americans can reasonably expect that the candidate who would be the first woman President in 219 years of the country’s history will be the person to beat on November 4, 2008.

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