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Monsoon hope

FOR A COUNTRY where rains played truant last year, leading to poor agricultural growth and serious water shortage, the prognosis of a `normal' South-West monsoon this year brings hope. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecast last week that the country would have its 13th successive normal rains from June to September coinciding with kharif agricultural operations. Additionally, the IMD's specific forecast is favourable for the country's three broadly homogeneous meteorological regions - - Peninsular India, comprising the southern States, Gujarat, Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh; North-West India including Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Punjab and Haryana; and the North-East including West Bengal, Orissa, Bihar and the eastern S tates. The IMD's track record of monsoon forecast has been good so far. It is hoped the replacement of four parameters out of the 16 would give the country a more accurate prediction. This country of continental proportions with an e ssentially agrarian economy needs forecast of temporal and spatial distribution of South-West rains if agricultural operations are to be planned and executed more systematically and successfully.

While the expectation of normal rains brings cheer to the rural areas, particularly regions affected by drought-like conditions, governments -- both at the Centre and in the States -- must assume the responsibility of making the best use of the antic ipated satisfactory monsoon. Surely, some lessons have been learnt from the experience of aberrant weather in some regions often prone to moisture-stress. Among the many regions across the country, Saurashtra and Kutch in Gujarat are striking example s of monsoon vagaries. In the last 20 years, these regions have suffered inadequate precipitation in no less than eight seasons. But no water conservation measures of any significant impact have been implemented to mitigate the rigours of mon soon failure. Indeed, it is the failure of the government to anticipate and take measures to combat unsatisfactory rains. Lack of supplemental irrigation facilities, particularly in times of mid-or end-season drought conditions mean unbearable financial setback for small and marginal farmers.

The country and its farmers need to make good the output loss suffered last year. It is imperative that inputs are made available on time and of the right quality. Farmers need credit for purchase of inputs. The input delivery system needs to be strength ened further. The Agriculture Ministry has set a kharif 2000 production target of 109.4 million tonnes foodgrains comprising rice, coarse cereals and pulses; 16.5 million tonnes of oilseeds; 325 million tonnes of sugarcane; and 14.5 million bales of cott on (170 kg each). There is no evidence that the Centre has any specific strategy to achieve the targets, apart from the ongoing programmes. The production-enhancement schemes have failed to deliver to the desired extent as is evident from the fluctuating agricultural output and the rising cost of production. Despite impressive growth in the last decade, the per capita availability of foodgrains today is less than what it was ten years ago. The huge buffer-stocks of foodgrains mean nothing to the poor un less they are able to access food at affordable prices. The policy-makers do not seem to have woken up to the reality of a rapid expansion of demand for food. The agricultural production strategy needs a serious review so as to produce more at lower cos t.