• PAGE ONE
• INDEX
• HOME

Rainfall `excess' in June, says IMD -- But spatial distribution remains skewed

Harish Damodaran

Somasekhar Mulugu

NEW DELHI, July 2

THE country as a whole has received excess rainfall during June, the opening month of the south-west monsoon season which extends till end-September. According to the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), the all-India area-weighted cumulative rainfall during June 1-28 amounted to 168.7 mm, which is 11.21 per cent higher than the normal long period average (LPA) of 151.7 mm for this period.

The monsoon activity for the country as a whole during any period is considered as `normal', if the rainfall ranges between 90 and 110 per cent of the LPA for that period, with any deviation beyond this on either side being termed as `deficient' or `exce ss'.

For individual meteorological sub-divisions, deviations of up to 19 per cent on either side from their respective LPAs are allowed for categorising the monsoon as `normal', with only variations beyond these being classified as `deficient' or `excess'.

It is by this definition that the country as a whole is deemed to have received `excess' rainfall in June. While this may be construed as a good beginning to this year's S-W monsoon, the picture, however, is less encouraging when one examines the monsoon 's spatial distribution.

During June 2000, the monsoon was deficient/scanty in as many as nine of the country's 35 sub-divisions, whereas this figure was only four in June 1999.

On the other hand, 14 sub-divisions received excess rainfall, compared to only 10 during June last year, with the corresponding sub-divisions with normal precipitation numbering 12 and 21 respectively. Thus, the all-India `excess' rainfall figure for Jun e hides the extent of regional variations in the monsoon's progress so far.

The sub-divisions receiving deficient rains in June include Tamil Nadu, Lakshadweep, Gujarat (excluding Saurashtra and Kutch), East Rajasthan, Western Madhya Pradesh, Andamans & Nicobar and Nagaland-Manipur-Tripura-Mizoram.

Of these, it is only the bajra-rich East Rajasthan and the soyabean-maize tracts of Western Madhya Pradesh that are truly agriculturally significant (Tamil Nadu does not depend much on the S-W monsoon for its main paddy crop).

But it is in Saurashtra, Kutch and Western Rajasthan that the story has been really depressing. Already reeling under the impact of last year's deficient monsoon leading to the build-up of acute drought conditions, the monsoon this year has not just been `deficient', but `scanty' in these areas, with shortfall exceeding 60 per cent.

In Saurashtra and Kutch, it has so far rained only 11 mm (86 per cent below the 76 mm LPA for June), with Western Rajasthan receiving 7 mm, i.e. 71 per cent less than normal.

The crops to be affected by the poor monsoon activity in the whole of Gujarat, Rajasthan and Western Madhya Pradesh would mainly be groundnut, soyabean, bajra, maize, cotton and guarseed. Besides, the already severe fodder shortage situation may further worsen, impacting adversely on milk production levels.

The good news, however, is in Andhra Pradesh, where there has been excess rainfall not only in the coastal districts, but also in Telangana and Rayalseema, which were ravaged by last year's monsoon failure as well poor rains subsequently in November-Dece mber, leading to extensive crop damage and stories of farmers' suicides.

The monsoon has also been good in the whole of Karnataka, Maharashtra (including Vidarbha and Marathwada), West Bengal, Orissa, Eastern Madhya Pradesh, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Punjab and Haryana. This would basically benefit the paddy crop, besides sugarca ne and coarse cereals like jowar and millets.

IMD officials say that the monsoon, after its timely onset in Kerala on June 1, has generally progressed well in association with the formation of low pressure areas over the Bay of Bengal. The rainfall's spatial pattern is largely determined by the path s traversed by the low-pressure systems and it is the inadequate formation of these troughs over the Arabian Sea, which is impeding the monsoon's progress towards Western Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat and Rajasthan.

While the June rains are crucial for sowing and deciding the acreage under different crops, the monsoon activity peaks only during July-August. It is in these months that the Kharif crop enters the growth stage beyond germination and yield levels are, th erefore, greatly influenced by soil moisture conditions during this period.