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Shortfall likely in kharif output in Gujarat

Our Bureau

GANDHINAGAR, July 3

GUJARAT, which saw a 38-per cent slump in production and a seven-per cent fall in the area under cultivation during the last kharif season due to failed monsoons, has been dealt a severe blow on account of the delayed monsoons once again this year.

According to the estimates by the State agriculture department, the total area under kharif cultivation is likely to fall by as much as 3.95 lakh hectares from the estimated 81.38 lakh ha. to 77.43 lakh ha. due to the delayed rains.

As the last season had witnessed a whopping 38-per cent shortfall in production due to a downward revision of seven-per cent land under kharif cultivation, this year's shortfall in production is likely to be around 20-25 per cent.

The Government estimates had put the overall fall in area under kharif cultivation this year as marginal in case the monsoons were delayed only up to June 30. As per the current projections by the local meteorological departments, the monsoon is hit in G ujarat by July 5 or so.

Dr. P.K. Mishra, Principal Secretary, State Agriculture Department, told Business Line that ``We have an informal weather watch group here that is represented among others by the IMD, ISRO and the Indian Air Force weather division which monitors the arri val of the monsoons. The weekly review last Thursday found favourable variables for widespread rains in Gujarat by July 4-5. If this holds good there will be only marginal variation in the total area under kharif cultivation and things would be under con trol''.

However, the department's contingency plan indicates a shift in cropping pattern underlining a negative growth factor in the case of major crops such as groundnut and cotton even for delay in rains up to June 30 which is already a fait accompli. This is against the normal deadline for the onset of monsoons in Gujarat which is the second week of June. The current projections also give a worst case scenario in the event of the rains holding back till July 16.

The major shrinkage in cultivable land comes in the case of cash crops such as groundnut, cotton, paddy and bajra. The gains come in the case of crops such as castor, pulses, sesamum and fodder crops.

The State Agriculture Directorate, in its crop specific estimates, has put the kharif season's groundnut production at 23.1 lakh tonnes as against 23.59 l.t. last year. This has to be viewed in the backdrop of the actual groundnut production during the p revious kharif season at around 6.2 l.t. from a total cultivated area of around 17 lakh ha.

The production estimates of castor have been revised upwards at 9.3 l.t. from 8.7 l.t. The production during last kharif was at 4.57 l.t., only 47 per cent of the targeted quantum. The estimates for cotton are pegged at 41.1 lakh bales as against 38 lakh bales last season. The actual cotton produce last season was 21.63 lakh bales, a fall of almost 43 per cent against the target.

Meanwhile, the projected seeds requirement for the kharif season has been pegged at 2,12,000 quintals against which the available quantum is 2,47,000 quintals. The break-up of the major crops vis-a-vis seeds required in the State (in quintals) is groundn ut - 25,640, cotton (43,000), bajra (39,400) and paddy (30,900).

In the case of fertilisers, 5.48 l.t. of urea have been allocated for the season, while the requirement in other varieties (in l.t.) is as follows: DAP - 2.72, ammonium sulphate - 0.72, mixed fertiliser - 0.07, potash - 0.4, ammonium nitrate - 0.22 and s ulphur phosphate - 0.3.