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It's time to boost research on dryland crops

Harish Damodaran

NEW DELHI, July 3

FOR the first time, rabi foodgrains output has crossed the 100-million-tonne barrier, touching 102.01 m.t. in 1999-2000, as per the latest estimates compiled by the Agriculture Ministry.

The development is significant because rabi crops -- which are usually sown towards November-December and harvested during April-June -- are not directly dependent on the south-west monsoon, which contribute to around 80 per cent of the total a nnual rainfall received by the country.

Instead, these are mainly grown in areas with assured irrigation facilities or in regions where there is sufficient residual moisture in the soil from the monsoon, which can then be harnessed through electric/diesel pumps. Thus, rabi production -- be it that of wheat or winter rice -- is not prone to wide fluctuations unlike kharif crops, whose output levels are inextricably linked to monsoon vagaries. A higher proportion of rabi crops, therefore, imparts greater stability to the countr y's foodgrains production.

From the table, it can be seen that the proportion of rabi grains to the country's total foodgrains output has gone up from 47.3 per cent in 1995-96 to 49.7 per cent in 1999-2000 (it was only 43.6 per cent in 1990-91). Most of this has been on account of wheat, the production of which has risen from 55.14 m.t. in 1994-95 to a record 74.25 m.t. last year, with its share in India's grain basket correspondingly going up from 31.26 per cent to 36.06 per cent.

In fact, if one disaggregates the 29.52 m.t.-increase in the country's total grains output since 1990-91, it would emerge that as much as 19.11 m.t. or 64.7 per cent of this has come on account of wheat and another 13.96 m.t. (47.3 per cent) from rice. O n the other hand, over this period, production of coarse cereals has dropped from 32.7 m.t. to 30.35 m.t. and that of pulses from 14.26 m.t. to 13.07 m.t.

The above pattern is explained mainly by the fact that over 51 per cent of the area under wheat and 51 per cent under rice is irrigated, as against only 10 per cent for coarse cereals and 13 per cent for pulses. The post-reforms period, it would seem, ha s only aggravated the dual nature of the Green Revolution, which has largely focussed on irrigated crops (wheat and rice), while ignoring those grown in rain-fed regions.

Unless there is a concerted effort at boosting research activity in the dryland regions and crops, apart from provision of adequate minimum support price and other marketing interventions, there is little hope for enhancing the production of pulses and c oarse cereals (`nutritious cereals', as rightly put by Dr. M.S. Swaminathan).

For a start, it may be wise to focus efforts on maize, where the success of Indian scientists in developing improved hybrids has been frustrated by the lack of complementary marketing support from the State agencies. Considering the growing demand for ma ize by poultry and cattlefeed manufacturers -- who have been importing nearly half a m.t. a year from the US and China -- there is tremendous scope for putting in place an integrated strategy for boosting maize production on the lines of the Technol ogy Mission for Oilseeds introduced during the mid-eighties.

It is a different matter, of course, that the oilseeds mission has now been reduced to a pale shadow of its past accomplishment. As the table shows, oilseeds production has plummeted to 21.18 m.t. in 1999-2000, the lowest since the 20.11-m.t. level reach ed in 1992-93. The drop has been particularly sharp for groundnut, where the estimated 5.61 m.t. output for 1999-2000 was close to the 5.12-m.t. level of 1985-86 when the mission was just about to be launched!

Here again, it is interesting that the production of soyabean and rapeseed-mustard (where nearly 70 per cent of the area is irrigated) has not suffered as much as groundnut, where the irrigated acreage accounts for less than 20 per cent. Indeed, between 1985-86 and 1999-2000, soyabean output has increased from just 1.02 m.t. to 6.84 m.t., while similarly rising from 2.68 m.t. to 5.67 m.t. for rapeseed-mustard.

From this, it is clear that the stagnation in soyabean and mustard production in recent times has been more due to demand-side problems (reinforced by large-scale imports of cheap edible oils) rather than any major supply-side infirmities. The other significant detail from the Agriculture Ministry's latest crop estimates pertains to sugarcane production, which has been assessed at an all-time high of 309.31 m.t. This is, indeed, a massive upward revision from the earlier estimate of 292.64 m.t. mad e in end-March. The upward revision has also been reflected in the sugar output for the current 1999-2000 season (October-September), which was initially estimated at 165 lakh tonnes and is now being assessed at 183 l.t.