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Monsoon in sowing phase better than normal

Harish Damodaran

NEW DELHI, July 16

AGGREGATE rainfall during the current monsoon season has been on the `positive side of normal' so far for the country as a whole, with 26 out of the 35 meteorological sub-divisions receiving normal-to-excess rainfall.

During the period June 1 to July 12, rainfall has been deficient only in nine sub-divisions, as against 13 during the corresponding period of 1999. Furthermore, of the 26 sub-divisions recording normal-to-excess rains so far, 14 received `excess' precipi tation, with only 12 falling under the `normal' category per se. Compared to this, rainfall was in excess only in four sub-divisions during the same period last year, while being normal in 18.

``The south-west monsoon's performance has been much better this time round, both in aggregate terms as well as spatial and temporal coverage'', the Director-General of the Indian Meteorological Division (IMD), Dr. R.R. Kelkar, told Business Line.

Monsoon activity for the country as a whole during any period is considered `normal', if the rainfall ranges between 90-110 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA) for that period, with deviations beyond this on either side being termed as `deficient' or `excess', respectively.

For individual meteorological sub-divisions, deviations of up to 20 per cent on either side from their respective LPAs are allowed for classifying the monsoon as `normal', with only variations beyond these being construed as `deficient' or `excess'.

According to IMD, the all-India area-weighted cumulative rainfall from June 1 to July 12 stood at 296.2 mm, 5.9 per cent higher than the LPA of 279.7 mm for this period, thereby rendering it on the `positive side of normal'.

The nine sub-divisions to have received deficient rainfall so far are West Rajasthan, East and West Madhya Pradesh, Saurashtra and Kutch, Gangetic West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Lakshadweep, Andamans and Nagaland-Manipur-Mizoram-Tripura.

Of these, the last three sub-divisions are not all that significant from the broader national agricultural perspective, while for Tamil Nadu, the S-W monsoon is not really crucial for its main paddy crop. Neither is poor rainfall in the West Bengal plain s a cause for alarm, given the State's abundant groundwater reserves.

Of the remaining, the real problem cases are West Rajasthan and Saurashtra-Kutch, which were the prime casualties of last year's erratic monsoon culminating in the build-up of acute drought conditions. But even these two sub-divisions have graduated from `scanty' status till early this month _ i.e rainfall being short in excess of 60 per cent _ to `deficient' position now.

With the monsoon activity registering an appreciable pick-up in the Saurashtra belt over last week, the situation is likely to improve further. Groundnut sowing in the region is already progressing at a brisk pace. West Rajasthan, on the other hand, trad itionally receives its initial monsoons rains only in mid-July, which means there is still some time left.

The real turnaround has been in the more agriculturally-significant East Rajasthan, where the rainfall shortage has dropped from around 52 per cent till end-June to 19 per cent. Recent rains in the Kota, Jaipur and Udaipur divisions are reported to have boosted the sowing of coarse cereals such as bajra and jowar.

Madhya Pradesh, Dr. Kelkar said, had not received good rains overall this year, mainly because the monsoon's progress northwards had been propelled mainly by two strong currents along the West coast (causing Mumbai's heavy downpour) and the Bay of Bengal . ``Madhya Pradesh has missed out somewhat by being in the middle. But we are now seeing considerable monsoon activity there too'', he added.

The benign aspect of the monsoon this time has been that it has not faltered much in the crucial kharif sowing phase, with virtually the whole country getting covered almost a fortnight earlier than the usual 45-day span from June 1. This is unlike last year, when rainfall activity was subdued from the last week of June till mid-July.

The other positive development has been in Andhra Pradesh, where there has been excess rainfall even in the Telangana and Rayalseema regions, which were ravaged by last year's monsoon failure, leading to extensive crop damage and stories of farmers' suic ides. The monsoon has also been good in the whole of Karnataka, Maharashtra (including Vidarbha and Marathwada), Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and North-Western India.