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Early UP polls likely

Ranabir Ray Choudhury

ONE OF the constructions put forward by analysts trying to fathom the reason behind Mr Vajpayee's December 6 statement on Ayodhya -- that the Ramjanambhoomi-Babri Masjid agitation was a ``manifestation of nationalist feelings'' -- is that the Prime Minis ter is preparing the ground for a mid-term election to the Lok Sabha by raking up the temple issue in the hope that this would increase the electorate's support for the saffron party.

If an election were indeed to be held, this argument would make much sense. But the question is: what is the Prime Minister's (or the BJP's) compulsion behind holding such elections at this juncture, particularly when there is no threat whatever from the party's allies in the National Democratic Alliance, specially from the Telugu Desam which can, single-handedly, topple the Government?

Indeed, it can be argued that the Vajpayee Government has never been as comfortable as now as far as its majority in the Lok Sabha is concerned. The Trinamul Congress will, of course, make a move to distance itself from the BJP (and the Vajpayee Governme nt) in the next couple of months in view of the West Bengal Assembly elections scheduled for next year (after April, that is), the target being the State's substantial minority-community votebank. It is, in fact, more than likely that Ms Mamata Banerjee will try to create as big a splash as possible when she does decide to dump the Vajpayee Government in order to derive as much political capital as possible in the run-up to the elections.

One should not be surprised if the BJP leadership obliges her by deliberately creating an issue over which she can resign, the understanding being that cooperation with the NDA Government would continue as before after the State elections whatever the ou tcome. In the event of a victory (the prospects of which, incidentally, have become weak following the withdrawal of Mr Jyoti Basu from the electoral scene and the emergence of Mr Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee as the West Bengal Chief Minister), the NDA Govern ment at the Centre would become even stronger with a friendly Ms Mamata Banerjee in the saddle in Calcutta. In the event of a defeat, she could once again be accommodated in the NDA Government and continue to serve (as now) as an effective thorn planted by the BJP in the side of the new West Bengal Left Front regime. In any case, the Trinamul Congress controls just about 10 seats in the Lok Sabha, which means that she has only token importance for the stability of the Vajpayee Government.

On the other hand, Mr Chandrababu Naidu's Telegu Desam is safely ensconced in the seat of power in Hyderabad (as opposed to the situation faced by Ms Banerjee and also Mr Karunanidhi in Tamil Nadu -- which also goes to the polls next year), and is, there fore, free of any compulsion to rock the boat at the Centre for electoral requirements at the State level. On the contrary, given the much-hyped economic-development interests of the Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister, it would be more sensible to expect Mr N aidu to continue to support the Vajpayee Government and in return extract as many economic concessions as possible for his State. Clearly, such a person has no need at all for a controversy like the one on Ayodhya because, at the present moment, he does not have to count on minority-community votes to stay in power in Hyderabad. Seen from this perspective, one can perhaps understand better the December 19 remark by Mr Naidu, namely, ``I don't know why people are bothered about a temple which has no rele vance to the present situation. One should not waste Parliament's time on issues which will not help the people at large in any manner''.

In terms of numbers, therefore, the Vajpayee Government is comfortably placed, which weakens the argument that the Ram Temple controversy has been injected into the realm of public debate so as to prepare the ground for a snap Lok Sabha election. Even so , a case can be made out for mid-term polls on the ground that such an election could improve the BJP's position in the Lok Sabha. Indeed, the improvement could even render the support of allies like the Telegu Desam unnecessary and even help the BJP to get an absolute majority in the House. But are there any indications that, in the event of an election, the BJP will in fact consolidate its position in the House? In the event of there being no firm indications in this direction, will it be sensible to take the risk of staging a mid-term Lok Sabha poll?

This is where Uttar Pradesh comes in, particularly in view of the fact that Assembly elections are due in that State next year, in the normal course. If the BJP does well in these elections, the result can conceivably be taken as an indication of the dir ection the political wind is blowing in the country at large. But, in fact, the ground-reality in UP is pretty bleak for the BJP, as indicated by the results of the civic polls held recently in the State. It follows that, from the BJP's point of view, so mething drastic should be done to improve the situation in UP, and what better subject can there be to be exploited for this end than the temple issue?

In fact, on December 6 itself, the day on which Mr Vajpayee kicked off the latest round of controversy on the Ram Temple, at least one daily carried the following report from Delhi: ``BJP sources said Vajpayee's pro-temple turn was a `message' to voters in Uttar Pradesh. They said a `hard' assessment of the recent civic polls in the State had revealed that `half the traditional urban bastion had crumbled'. So, 'something drastic' had to be done before the Assembly polls to regain lost ground.'' The next day, an unnamed ``senior'' BJP MP was quoted by a another daily as saying: ``The PM made a very good statement. It is associated with Uttar Pradesh. Only if the elections in UP are postponed for three years will we not hear of it. But with the Congress, the Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samaj Party competing for the Muslim vote, we, too, have to play politics.'' Not without reason did the Prime Minister fly in ``two planeloads of rozedars from Lucknow to attend his lavish iftaar at the Ashoka Hotel o n December 19. In the week before, Mr Vajpayee is reported to have flown into Delhi "all the new councillors of Lucknow''.

Reports suggest that the BJP's allies in the NDA will wait till the middle of next month -- when the date for the construction of the Ram Temple will be announced by sadhus during the Kumbh Mela -- before deciding on their future course of action. There is no doubt whatever that, with the announcement of the date, the issue of the Ram Temple will make even a bigger splash on the national scene. In the circumstances, it would make eminent tactical political sense if the Rajnath Singh Government were to t ake this opportunity to recommend dissolution of the House, which would be tantamount to holding the next UP Assembly election under the shadow of the Ayodhya issue. Is this, then, the gameplan behind Mr Vajpayee's sudden December 6 statement on Ayodhya? The nation will know the answer by the end of January or, latest, by February.