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Global grains output likely to decline

Our Bureau

MUMBAI, Feb. 25

THE aggregate production of global wheat and coarse grains in 2000-01 has been forecast to decline by 17 million tonnes (m.t) to 1,452 m.t. The consumption is expected increase by 9 m.t to reach 1,484 m.t, leading to a 33 m.t drawdown of global stocks, a ccording to the latest report of the London-based International Grains Council (IGC). World trade is likely to be 209 m.t, 3 m.t lower.

Specifically, world wheat production in 2000-01 has been forecast at 580 m.t, down 4 m.t from the previous year, while world trade will be down by 3 m.t to reach 104 m.t

IGC forecast world consumption at 598 m.t, up 6 m.t. Despite lower feed demand for beef production in the EC, requirements for poultry and pigs will be higher. Taking into account also for a small rise in food use, total EC consumption could go up by som e 4 m.t, IGC said.

World closing stocks will be 104 m.t, 18 m.t lower. The aggregate carry-over of wheat is forecast at 47.8 m.t including 22.8 m.t in the US.

Coarse grains output is set to decline 14 m.t this year to 871 m.t following steep drop in maize (corn) output in China, partly offset by higher production in the US and CIS. World trade is forecast to remain unchanged at 105 m.t, while global shipments of maize are expected to record a small increase, that of barley, sorghum and rye could decline and trade in oats will be unchanged, said IGC.

World consumption of coarse grains for 2000-01 is forecast at 886 m.t, a small growth of 3 m.t. Industrial use is expected to account for an increased proportion of total use, with rising demand for ethanol production in the US and starch manufacture in the EC.