• PAGE ONE
• INDEX
• HOME

Steep rise in unemployment levels feared

Our Bureau

NEW DELHI, July 2

THE number of unemployed persons would rise from an estimated 9.05 million in 1999-2000 to 25.94 million by 2007 and 37.42 million by 2012 in the event of the country's real gross domestic product registering only a 6.5 per cent annual growth along with a 1.8 per cent yearly increase in labour force.

Even if GDP growth is enhanced to eight per cent _ as proposed for the 10th Plan period _ the unemployed population would initially rise to 19.72 million by 2007, before dropping marginally to 17.94 million in 2012.

And in the `rapid growth' scenario of nine per cent per year, the number of unemployed would expand to 14.32 million in 2007 and 10.05 million by 2012, according to projections made by the Task Force on Employment Opportunities headed by Dr Montek Singh Ahluwalia.

According to the report, the total workforce of the country, i.e job-seekers, would increase from 406.05 million in 1999-2000 to 462.12 million by 2007 and 505.23 million in 2012, assuming an annual growth of 1.8 per cent. In other words, the economy wou ld have to generate nearly 8.3 million fresh jobs every year.

Against this background, a GDP growth of 6.5 per cent will create only 5.9 million additional jobs per year. These would, however, go up to 7.1 million and 8.2 million, if growth rates are pushed up to eight per cent and nine per cent, respectively.

"The role of GDP growth in generating employment is overwhelming. Our simulations show that a shift from 6.5 per cent growth to 8 per cent growth generates an additional employment of 14.5 million in the terminal year 2012,'' the report presented to the Deputy Chairman of the Planning Commission, Mr K.C. Pant here today, has pointed out.