• PAGE ONE
• INDEX
• HOME

To Agra...without hope

Rasheeda Bhagat

WHEN the Prime Minister, Mr Atal Bihari Vajpayee, extended his invitation, quite out of the blue, to Gen Pervez Musharraf, for an Indo-Pak summit, one hoped that, at long last, there would be some breakthrough in the thawing of Indo-Pak relations.

But alas, as the countdown to the summit begins, Islamabad's tone gets shriller on ``the core issue of Kashmir'', and New Delhi responds with chill rigidity. ``Kashmir Bharat ka atoot ang hai (Kashmir is an inseparable part of India)'', we scream. ``Stop repression and killing of innocent Muslims in Kashmir,'' they shout, in ever strident tones.

There is a perceptible hardening of stands on both sides even before the two leaders can meet. Mr Vajpayee, the more senior, mature and, of course, legitimately elected leader, has refrained from lengthy comment or conjecture on the possible outcome of t he summit. On the contrary, he has announced easing of the visa regime. But the story from Islamabad is different.

Gen Musharraf, basking in the glory of his newly acquired post of President -- and the legitimacy granted it by an over-enthusiastic India and Mr Vajpayee, who was in a big hurry to greet him as Rashtrapatiji -- is giving interviews freely.

Hence, it came as no surprise that his informal meeting with editors in Pakistan landed him in a bit of a mess, with his reported statement that India had extended the invitation to him on ``pressure from the US.'' Of course, these reports were denied an d withdrawn, but not before the message had been received and registered by New Delhi.

But that goof-up has not made Pakistan's military ruler hold his tongue, at least till the Summit. And his Foreign Office is not helping either. So, everyday, we get a sermon from Islamabad. One day, it is on the importance of including the Kashmiri peop le in the Indo-Pak dialogue, and before New Delhi can blink an eye, the Hurriyat leaders are invited to have tea with the general at the party the Pakistan High Commissioner is to host in Delhi. That this is going to embarrass the host country considerab ly, and make it see red, hardly seems to matter to the General or his advisers.

It is another matter that sanity and pragmatism dictate that the Kashmiris be given some say in deciding their destiny. But this could always have been worked out later because India too needs some kind of a face-saving measure. And, obviously, the host country has to take that decision and not Islamabad.

Close on the heels of the Hurriyat controversy, we get, out of the blue, a terse message from Pakistan's Foreign office that India is committing all kinds of human rights violations against the Kashmiris. Next we have a homily from the General himself on how the Pakistan army is ``neither hawkish nor dovish... it is only realistic''. And it seeks peace with India but only with ``honour and dignity.''

As the din from the fundamentalists and the political hawks gets deafening about how President Musharraf should not effect a total sell-out to India, we are told that the Pakistani delegation will leave its Commerce Minister at home. The message is stark and simple. Resolve the Kashmir issue first and we can talk about trade, business and MFN status to India later.

In contrast is the voice of trade and industry in Pakistan. Mr Majyd Aziz, an apparel manufacturer and former Chairman of the Sindh Association of Industry, says the prayer of all ``sanguine'' businessmen and industrialists in Paksitan is that ``sense wi ll prevail and the walls of hatred, distrust, and venomous propaganda will crumble like the Berlin Wall.''

Making a passionate plea for opening up trade between the two countries he says that Paksitan stands to gain much through Indo-Pak co-operation in the IT industry. ``We have excellent human resource that needs proper guidance, encouragement, and opportun ities. Pakistani software houses are looking for joint ventures with counterparts in Bangalore. There is already cooperation and business going on between the software wizards on both sides of the LoC, though this is being done without the State Bank of Pakistan being any wiser.''

He says that textile manufacturers in Pakistan are interested in buying raw material, dyes and chemicals, machinery, and finished goods from India; and selling fabrics and made-ups to the vast Indian market. ``There are many businessmen looking for mutua lly beneficial opportunities in plastics, packaging, automobile parts, electrical equipment, and other products.''

Coming down on those who are against granting the MFN status to India, Mr Aziz wonders how the Pakistani administration could ignore the huge undocumented trade between the two countries.

``The recent negative response of Pakistan's policy-makers on the issue of granting MFN status to India was hasty and displays the myopic attitude of economic planners, who seem keen to please the militant organisations and vested interests such as smugg lers, corrupt border officials, and unscrupulous financiers,'' he adds.

In an interesting example, he points out that Pakistan does not recognise Taiwan, ``yet a steady stream of Pakistani traders arrives daily at the Taipei airport. This is one solid case of doing business with those whom Pakistan's `time-tested' friend doe s not recognise or accept. Here, trade took precedence over political compulsions. Then why not unshackle the Indo-Pak trade regime?'' Mr Aziz and his colleagues from Pakistan's business and industry might argue till they are blue in the face, but are th eir rulers listening? Highly doubtful.

Caught up as they are is in the tizzy over Kashmir, generations of Pakistan's leaders, be they in uniform or mufti, have unfortunately addressed the whole gamut of Indo-Pak relations and normalisation of ties from the platform of rhetoric rather than rea son. Whether it was Ms Benazir Bhutto or Mr Nawaz Sharif, Zia ul Haq or Gen Musharraf, they have found it extremely difficult to speak the language of peace.

Rhetoric we have in plenty; the urgent need is to divert the scarce economic resources in South Asia away from Defence to development; to initiate confidence-building measures at different levels, to improve trade ties, and so on. But, when it comes to t he crunch, Pakistan's leadership makes a hasty retreat from the negotiating table and joint declarations, raising again and again the Kashmir bogey.

If Pakistan shies away from working towards a lasting peace at this crucial juncture, what do we have on the Indian side? Immense pressure from all and sundry, with political parties in the lead, not to compromise on Kashmir; not to trust Pakistan; not t o forget the sacrifices of our Defence personnel over the years, and so on.

So, where does that leave the Indo-Pak imbroglio? Almost where it was 53 years ago. From time to time both sides make a lot of empty noises, but nothing substantive happens. If the rest of Indian is exhausted with Indo-Pak relations going nowhere, just i magine the plight of the Kashmiris.

Small wonder they do not want to have anything to do with either country and are clamouring for independence. But does either India or Paksitan want to face this reality? Far from it. Each nation thinks the Kashmiri adores it. India might admit that, for the time being, the Kashmiris might be estranged or alienated, but they will certainly come around once the right kinds of carrots are dangled before them. On its part, Pakistan believes the Kashmiris are happy to pick up arms and become jehadis or bear the bullets of jehadis, all for the greater Islamic brotherhood.

With the Agra summit hardly holding out hope of this impasse being broken, perhaps both the countries will continue to stick to their views for another 53 years.

(Feedback to this article can be sent to rasheeda@thehindu.co.in)