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`Indo-Pak war will be at the cost of Kashmiris'

Rasheeda Bhagat

(Recently in Srinagar)

KASHMIR'S major problem is lack of ``mature political leadership. Leave alone Pakistan, even the GoI has stopped taking our Chief Minsiter, Mr Farooq Abdullah seriously,'' says Prof. Mohammed Basheer Dabla, head of the department of Sociology at the Univ ersity of Kashmir in Srinagar.

In an interview to Business Line two days before the University Vice-Chancellor issued an order banning the faculty from voicing political views to the media, he regretted that the GoI has failed to cash in on some confusion and question marks in the Val ley post-Afghanistan bombings.

Excerpts:

Q. In my interaction with the students at this university I see a lot of anger; both against India and America. I met one P.G. student who is ready to die for jehad. Your comments.

A. The person you talked to might represent some but not all of the students. This is one of the opinions which is emerging after Afghanistan. The youngsters are seeing one component of the Islamic ummah fighting against the other; Pakistan against Afgha nistan. Not only that, it is supporting a non-Muslim super power and helping it to attack Muslims. So they see a lot of contradiction.

Q. And feel let down by Paksitan?

A. Some of them have turned against Pakistan.. but against the Government and not the people. Gen. Musharraf's image had gone down. But from the time Mr L.K. Advani started making noises about hot pursuit and the like, Gen. Musharraf has exploited that a nd his image has started improving again, and he has been able to convince many people here, and also some fundamentalists in Pakistan, that had we not supported America, our case in Kashmir would have been spoilt by India's closeness to the US.

Q. In this background and the bombings in Afghanistan, what is happening in Kashmir?

A. Kashmir's position is getting worse by the day. in fact, the legitimacy of foreign militancy has got eroded. Most of the foreign militants are from Afghanistan; trained there and sent here. They have the commitment to that country also.. some of them were going back and were caught in between at the borders.

In that context it will have a certain degree of impact on Kashmir. They genuinely believe that they have been trained for decades for this work and sent for a cause. So within a week or a month they might not destroy the entire planning. It may take som e months. We feel the process has started and this might have a qualitative if not quantitative impact on Kashmir in the near future.

In this situation the GoI should have taken benefit of this development.

Q. How?

A. One; the legitimisation of outside elements in the Kashmir freedom movement was going down or was at least divided. Two, there is a growing opinion among the local population, including the militants, that a lot of bloodshed has taken place in Kashmir and so now we must do much more through political means. Third, there has been a depression in the entire Muslim community following the American attacks on Afghanistan .. how helpless the Afghan Muslims are and how mercilessly they have been killed.

One effect of that can be that we may be producing an anti-American militant feeling among Muslims with the objective to fight America. But, on the other hand, there are other people who say you cannot see your people dying in this way. So there can be another kind of solution outside the framework of armed conflict.

So the GoI could have taken benefit of this political-military situation. It should have started something. In fact, I personally expected something positive from Mr George Fernandes.. he is considered a sympathiser of the local people. He is not a hawk. He can be differentiated from Mr L.K. Advani and many other Central Government people. But he also has become the same..

Q. Because he wanted some legitimacy to return to the Cabinet following the Tehelka controversy.

A. Maybe he had compelling reasons to issue such provocative statements. But I have seen such a statement from him for the first time. He is a changed person.. it might be compulsion as you say... to do more than the king himself! But it is unfortunate f or Kashmir and the GoI that they have not taken some benefit from this situation.

Q. Once the Afghan aggression ends, what would the repercussion for Kashmir? Do you think the US will bring pressure upon India and Pakistan to solve the Kashmir problem somehow?

A. There are alternatives. You can't say this or that only. The most important thing is if Americans can try to convince India that some kind of compromise formula should emerge. The GoI is taking a very ultra stand right now. But this will not last once the Afghan attacks are over. They might not use the same language or tactics.

The Pakistani strategy might work.. in fact it has been conveyed through the Pakistani media and political apparatus that it has been assured by the US that it will help them in resolving the Kashmir issue without any armed conflict.

Q. In what way?

A. I feel America as a super power has got that kind of talent and clout. If not by compulsion, it will at least be able to convince the GoI not to take this kind of a stand. You can make out a difference in the stand of the Indian Government before and during Agra and now. If the US is able to take the GoI back to the Agra stand from its present stand, that will be an achievement.

Q. Do you think this present hawkish tone is linked to the UP elections?

A. Partly because of that and partly to make people feel their presence. When the Afghan war started, India wanted to join the coalition and without asking Mr Advani offered intelligence. Later they faced a lot of embarrassment. Paksitan was alert and se ized the opportunity, Gen Musharraf outsmarted these guys though he had to face and continues to face opposition.

But one thing should be appreciated... the Prime Minister is not fitting in this framework. You can make a qualitative difference between the statements of Mr Advani and the Prime Minister as also Mr Jaswant Singh. Mr Vajpayee shows a concern for the who le of India, Mr Advani shows a concern not of the Hindu society but the Hindutva brigade and Mr Jaswant Singh is somewhere in between!

Q. What is the solution to this problem?

A. We feel the solution is in terms of peace and development which are inter-related. Without peace you cannot do anything. First thing is to make the two Governments understand that you cannot resolve the Kashmir issue without political strategy. We kno w both India and Pakistan have political compulsions... these will only get worse or more stronger after 10 or 20 or 30 years, because the public opinion in both India and Paksitan is getting stronger and stronger day by day. The anti-India sentiment in Paksitan and vice versa is growing like anything.

Q. Do you see a war?

A. That may be there, and if it happens it will only be at the cost of Kashmiris. Pakistan will bombard the Jammu area and India will bombard the Kashmir valley (POK). We'll be finished in the end. And the major irritant will not be there for the two cou ntries! I was reading a work of nuclear fiction the other day and it said exactly this.

So, theoretically speaking, there is every logic for adopting a peace approach and that has to be related to development.. meeting the minimum needs of the people.

Q. All that the Indian Government will be willing to do; development of Kashmir and pumping in of tons of money... provided you stay with India.

A. That is not in the hands of Kashmiris. It is not even in the hands of the political leadership of Kashmir because we don't have a mature political leadership. It is in the hands of the Governments of India and Pakistan.

Q. Do you think things will be okay if the LoC will be made the international boundary?

A. No, it will not solve the problem. For all practical purposes, it is the international boundary; at least operationally.

Q. What or where is the alternative; GoI will say we are ready to develop Kashmir but there will be no self-determination.

A. We will say start the peace initiative.

Q. But how.. unless militancy ends, the security forces, which are such a big irritant here, cannot be removed.

A. That is what I'm saying .. take a political initiative. There is every reason for it; till then nothing will happen here.

Q. But isn't it a chicken and egg syndrome? Till militancy ends how can the security forces be removed. How will peace return?

A. More than the people of Kashmir... the Governments of India and Paksitan have to decide. Look at our Chief Minister, Mr Farooq Abdullah. All the statements he makes are irresponsible; at first the GoI took note of it; but these day it just ignores him .

Q. He says let us have war...

A. Even the Pakistan Government did not take note of it. If the Foreign or Defence Minister had said this, it would have been taken seriously.. as if war is a game.. how can he talk like this?

Q. Meanwhile what happens to the people of Kashmir?

A. The people suffer.. more and more by the day. And we are creating generations which will be disabled and injured.. and they will create havoc. You listened to one such student just now and can gauge for yourself the impact of militancy. Aap samajhe ki yeh sahi ya galat hei. Lekin yeh generation kis cheez ke liye taiyar ho rahi hei hai? Marney ke liye. (You may say it is right or wrong; but you can see this generation is getting ready to die). And Advani sahib says that we will pursue a proactive poli cy on Kashmir!

Pic.: Prof. Mohammed Basheer Dabla

Response can be sent to rasheeda@thehindu.co.in