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Reform: the elites want it, the masses don't

K. C. Suri

The BJP's `feel good' and `Shining India' campaign had an unintended consequence: it made the economy into an election issue, forcing everyone including the media to pay some attention to this. The election verdict has continued this focus on the economy, with the share market fluctuations and speculations about the role of the Left in the new government. Notwithstanding all this attention, very little attempt has been made to check how ordinary people think about the economic policy and particularly about the package of economic reforms.

The post-poll survey asked several carefully worded questions to understand the people's perceptions of economic policies and how they feel about their economic condition. The findings are striking. The survey findings suggest that there is very little approval among the ordinary citizens for economic reforms. Significantly, there is a very high degree of popular consensus on this matter that cuts across class and party lines. For instance, 65 per cent respondents endorse the view that there should be a legal ceiling on land and property ownership. Those who vote for the Left are a little more enthusiastic about it, but even the Congress and NDA voters support it very strongly. There is still some consensus among Indians, across parties and classes, about the need for the state to actively strive to limit the extent of inequalities in the society. Another suggestion, that the number of government employees should be reduced to save money to the government, finds only 29 per cent takers. Once again there is very little difference on class or party lines on this question. If anything the better off, perhaps including some organised sector workers, oppose downsizing even more strongly. The disinvestment policy of the government finds even fewer takers with only 20 per cent supporting handing over of public sector enterprises into private hands. Even among the NDA voters, this figure was only 22 per cent. Instead of asking people to respond to words like `feel good' or `Shining India' we asked them direct questions about how their own economic condition may have changed over the last five years. There is a perceptible division on class lines on the question of improvement of economic conditions. More poor people feel that their living conditions are becoming worse, while a larger percentage of middle and upper classes see improvement in their economic condition. While only 20 per cent of the very poor felt that their economic conditions had improved, 41 per cent of the upper middle class felt the same. In other words, there was a direct and positive relationship between being well off and feeling good. This was directly related to voting. Amongst the NDA voters, 35 per cent voters said that their economic conditions had improved while the figure among Congress voters was only 22 per cent.

Another question on the level of satisfaction with the current economic situation also elicited similar responses. The poorer a respondent was, the more likely he or she was to feel very dissatisfied with his or her situation, and vice versa for the well off.

While 22 per cent of the upper middle class is fully satisfied with their present financial condition, the figure drops to only 12 per cent among the very poor. Also, 30 per cent of the very poor are highly dissatisfied with their current financial conditions, the figure among upper middle class respondents is 11 per cent. This too is directly related to voting: the satisfied are more likely to be NDA voters, while those dissatisfied were more with the Congress. While these figures do not offer conclusive evidence that the BJP lost the election due to its economic policy and performance, they do indicate the `feel good' campaign was misdirected.

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Stories in this Section

• Radical shift in the social basis of political power
• Methodology of National Election Study 2004
• A vote for secular politics
• The turnout was low but not alarmingly so
• Reform: the elites want it, the masses don't
• Caste matters, but so do a whole lot of other things
• Vajpayee's popularity alone was not enough
• Alliances did the trick for the Congress

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