Stakes high for Iran, Turkey

By Kesava Menon

MANAMA (BAHRAIN) JAN. 7. Two West Asian states, Turkey and Iran, have geared up to face the prospect that the long era of regional conflict could end if Syria and Israel resolve their dispute.

Surprisingly, the Arab states, which could be affected the most if such a development does take place, seem to be the least prepared. The United Arab Emirates is trying to work with Egypt to organise a summit but this effort could turn out as unsuccessful as the similar ones in the past.

Turkey has established a special relationship with Israel in the military and economic fields. Although both states have denied this, there seems to be little doubt that the hostility towards Syria, which they have in common, is a major factor in this relationship. If Syria and Israel were to resolve their differences it would almost certainly lead to closer association between Damascus and Washington. A major development in this regard would be the removal of Syria from the U.S. State Department's list of states sponsoring terrorism. Instead of the economic embargoes imposed on Syria because of its placement on the list, the U.S. could turn around and encourage investments in that country.

Ankara's fear is that Syria's estrangement from the U.S., and the consequent pressure on it, could end before the issues outstanding between Turkey and Syria are resolved. It has, therefore, demanded that Syria's name should not be struck off the list of terrorist states until Damascus clamps down on the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK). The PKK has been waging an armed rebellion against Turkey in which several thousands have been killed. Turkey claims that the PKK has offices and runs training camps in the part of Lebanon controlled by the Syrian army.

Just before the Syria-Israel talks got underway in U.S., there were reports that the U.S. President, Mr. Bill Clinton, would speak to his Syrian counterpart, Mr. Hafez al Assad, about a proposal to enhance Syria's water supplies. If Syria gets back the Golan Heights in a deal with Israel, it would also re-possess the Banias reservoir, a major water source, which is currently integrated with the Israeli water grid.

Israel wants Syria to allow it to continue drawing water from Banias and Syria has indicated that it is not averse to it. However, Syria too does not have an abundance of water and is dependent on the 700 cu.m per day which Turkey releases down the Euphrates river.

Like Turkey, Iran has reason to believe that a Syria-Israel rapprochement will adversely affect its interests. At one level, Iran's objection is ideological and related to its hostility to the ``Zionist entity'' which it believes is an imperialist implant in the West Asian Muslim world. But at a more basic level, a Syria-Israel rapprochement would affect Iran's regional standing.

Owing to the presence of large numbers of Shias, and followers of the off-shoots of Shia Islam such as the Druze and Alawis, the Levant is in a sense a part of the Iranian cultural Imperiuma region where Iran has strong claims to primacy. An Israel-Syria accord would leave Israel as the unquestioned regional power and Iran will thereby be directly affected. It is small wonder that Iran's supreme religious leader, Ayatollah Syed Ali Khamenei, has spoken out against the negotiations between Israel and Syria and it remains to be seen whether Iranian attitudes will change if the President, Mr. Hojatollesslam Syed Mohammed Khatami's powers are increased after February's parliamentary elections.

While Turkey and Iran have a coherent response to the development on the Syria-Israel track, the Arab world still struggles for the unity necessary before it can even try to evolve a cohesive response. One kind of response has been provided by the irrepressible Col. Muammar Qadhafi of Libya, who declared that Israel has no place in West Asia. Col. Qadhafi has advised the Israelis that they might be better off looking for land in Alaska where they could settle.

Clinton seeks to revive stalled talks

SHEPHERDSTOWN (U.S.), JAN. 7. The U.S. President, Mr Bill Clinton, has returned to Shepherdstown, the venue of the West Asia peace talks, to press Israeli and Syrian leaders to end an impasse that has brought the negotiations to a standstill.

Mr. Clinton, on his third visit to the venue since the dialogue began three days ago, met the Israeli Prime Minister, Mr. Ehud Barak, before holding talks with the Syrian Foreign Minister, Mr. Farouq al-Shara, a U.S. official said on Thursday.

- AP

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