Security implications of Karmapa's stay in India

By Atul Aneja

NEW DELHI, JAN. 14. As the Government brainstorms the fallout of the defection into India of the 14-year old Karmapa, Ugyen Trinley Dorje, three possible options stand out. According to highly-placed Government sources, decision-makers are studying the implications of either granting asylum to the teenaged monk or accepting his de facto refugee status. His deportation to China so far has not found favour with.

But a powerful section in the official establishment, while agreeing that the Karmapa's deportation to China may have negative domestic consequences, insists that Dorje's stay in India may jeopardise the national security interests. In fact, shifting him to any of the strongholds of the Kagyu school of Buddhism, which he heads, suits India best, they say. The Kagyu school has an estimated global following of five million Buddhists and a spread of about 300 monasteries all over the world.

The Karmapa's presence may have a negative fallout on India's ties with China. Already grappling with Pakistan to counter terrorism, India can ill-afford to open another channel of politico-military tensions with China, defence sources say.

As it is, the Karmapa's defection is shrouded in mystery, though a larger international connivance is not being ruled out. A section of the Government feels that the Karmapa could not have crossed Tibet without China's knowledge. Sources say the Karmapa escaped from the third or fourth floor of the Tsurphu monastery, near Lhasa, late last month. He supposedly travelled by jeep along the single pothole- ridden road which leads out of Lhasa. The road then runs along a river bed. Curiously, the vehicle carrying him and six of his colleagues crossed seven bridges which are said to be manned by the Chinese round-the-clock before entering Nepal.

The defectors are said to have crossed the Indian border somewhere near Gorakhpur in eastern Uttar Pradesh. Sources here find it highly improbable that the Karmapa evaded the Chinese vigilance net throughout his journey to Dharamsala.

In case there is a Chinese hand in this episode, it can have larger security implications for India, Government sources on conditions of anonymity said.

The presence of the Karmapa in India can generate pressures for his transfer to the sensitive border State of Sikkim. The Kagyu sect, headed by the Karmapa, is headquartered in the Rumtek monastery in Sikkim.

Rumtek is not an ordinary monastery and houses the treasures brought into India by the 16th Karmapa, who escaped with the Dalai Lama in 1959. Besides its riches, the wealthy monastery houses the black hat, symbol of the final authority of this sect. With Rumtek having an international following, it has grown in size and influence over the years. Sources say its clout extends beyond the clergy and also rubs on the political and economic elite in the State and beyond. If the teenage monk stays in India, pressures to take him to Rumtek will mount. Already, there are reports that key leaders of the sect want him to be shifted to the monastery in the eastern Himalayas. According to press reports, the Tai Situ Rimpoche - a U.S.-educated monk who has been one of the four regents involved in the selection of the 17th Karmapa after the death of the 16th - has already stated that the Dorje's ultimate destination will be Rumtek. If this happens, it could help China acquire a lever to influence events in this border State, analysts say.

As it is, India's sensitivity towards Sikkim are heightened on two counts. China has not formally accepted Sikkim's merger with India. Besides, the State is not far from Arunachal Pradesh whose status has also been disputed by China. The possibility of the extension of external influence, however indirect here, can affect security along India's eastern borders.

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