Will Clinton skip Pakistan?

By C. Raja Mohan

NEW DELHI, JAN. 31. The U.S. President, Mr. Bill Clinton's visit to the subcontinent is certainly on, according to informed sources here. But the political nature of his sojourn in South Asia, most probably in the third week of March, is still up in the air.

The current intense, behind-the-scenes diplomacy involving the United States, India and Pakistan is said to be centred around one question: Will Mr. Clinton insist on going to Pakistan?

The grim political mood here, following the hijacking of the Indian Airlines flight IC-814 to Kandahar in December, will significantly ease if Mr. Clinton decides to skip Pakistan and limit his travels to India and Bangladesh. Not surprisingly, the Chief Executive of Pakistan, Gen. Pervez Musharraf, wants to prevent exactly such an outcome.

The internal debate within the Clinton administration on the President visiting Pakistan, remains to be clinched. India is arguing that by going to Pakistan after the Kargil aggression, the military coup and the growing evidence of Pakistani support to international terrorism, Mr. Clinton will only encourage the Pakistan Army to persist with its negative policies.

Friends and supporters of India in the U.S. Congress are demanding that Mr. Clinton's trip be used to build a new relationship with India and put an end to the past American tendency to equate India and Pakistan. But many in the Clinton administration and outside of it in Washington argue that isolating Islamabad now would further destabilise Pakistan and give a fillip to radical Islamic forces. Their logic is the U.S. should engage Pakistan in the hope of modifying its behaviour in Afghanistan and ending its support to international terrorism.

The U.S. is apparently using the incentive of a presidential visit to extract some major concessions from Gen. Musharraf. It is said that the U.S. has demanded movement in at least four areas from Pakistan. These include Pakistani pressure on the Taliban to change its policies, and in particular expel Osama bin Laden, the Saudi financier accused by the U.S. of masterminding various international terrorist actions.

The other demands on Gen. Musharraf are a credible timeframe for the restoration of a semblance of democracy, signing the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty and a crackdown on the sources of Islamic radicalism and terrorism in Pakistan.

By inviting the senior leader of the Taliban administration, Mullah Mohammed Rabbani, this week to Pakistan and offering to go to Afghanistan in the next few weeks, the General may be signalling his readiness to use the Pakistan Army's influence in Afghanistan to address the American concerns.

Gen. Musharraf is also likely to come up with some cosmetic gestures on the restoration of civilian rule, such as elections to the local bodies. On the CTBT, he has talked of building a national consensus; but like in India, he faces considerable opposition from the extreme religious groups.

A significant movement on these issues could strengthen the hands of those in Washington calling for a continuing engagement of Islamabad and facilitate Mr. Clinton's stopover in Pakistan. But many doubts remain on Gen. Musharraf's ability to deliver. The present instinct of the Clinton administration is to announce the visit to India and Bangladesh, and hold back on the Pakistan leg until Gen. Musharraf delivers at least on some of the American demands.

India and its friends in the U.S. seem to want a more clear-cut and immediate American decision on Pakistan right away. Important decisions in the next few days in New Delhi, Islamabad and Washington are likely to define the political contours of the visit.

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