McCain leaves Bush in the cold

By Sridhar Krishnaswami

WASHINGTON, FEB. 2. New Hampshire has lived up to its reputation yet again in the Presidential election primaries of 2000. On Tuesday, Sen. John McCain walked away with a victory over the Republican frontrunner, Mr. George W. Bush, with nearly 20 per cent margin, raising more than just a few eyebrows.

For the Democrats and the Vice-President, Mr. Albert Gore Jr., it was less than a satisfying evening. Mr. Gore edged past his only challenger, Mr. Bill Bradley, but the five per cent margin shows that the Democratic race is hardly sealed in favour of the establishment candidate. For Mr. Bradley, former Senator from New Jersey, the result means that it is going to be tough sailing from now on.

But the real message is for the Republican Party and its lead candidate, Mr. Bush. Here is a party and a campaign organisation that was literally mesmerised by the financial clout and fund- raising abilities of the Texas Governor; and in spite of overwhelming endorsements from the Republican political arena, Mr. Bush could not make it. In fact, he came away poorly if the margin of win and loss are to be factored in. Mr. Bush was quite dignified in defeat, saying among other things that his opponent had spent more time in this tiny Granite State.

Also, in the Republican camp, the results cannot be viewed favourably by the publisher billionaire, Mr. Steve Forbes, who finished a distant third. For a person who has been in and out of New Hampshire for the last several years in his two Presidential bids, the outcome must be hurting politically. Following him was Mr. Alan Keyes with the conservative Christian leader, Mr. Gary Bauer, positioning himself last with about one per cent of the votes.

There are no signs yet that the Republican pack of contenders is in the process of narrowing down to between Mr. Bush and Mr. McCain though the expectation is that this is only inevitable. For a start, the belief is that Mr. Bauer may bow out of the race to be followed by Mr. Keyes and perhaps a little later Mr. Forbes. The bottomline in New Hampshire is the voters have shown clear preferences for candidates in both the parties and the message is being taken seriously.

Mr. McCain may have come away looking quite impressive and Mr. Bradley may have still been within striking distance of Mr. Gore, but there is a tough campaigning out there in the next six to eight weeks. Mr. McCain must now be able to sustain the momentum, raise some good money in the next several days and take on Mr. Bush in the traditional southern strongholds like South Carolina shortly.

The first analysis of the votes reveals that Mr. McCain came away with the solid win largely on the character count where voters saw him as a solid person to lead the country. Neither his tax alternatives to the Texas Governor nor his stand on abortion seems to have mattered. Secondly, both Mr. McCain and Mr. Bradley had the backing of independent voters, Mr. Bradley especially coming out looking good on this score vis-a-vis Mr. Gore.

While the Democrats will be getting a small breather in the primaries schedule for the next three weeks or so, the Republicans have a tight five-week schedule ahead. On February 19, Mr. Bush will have to come out looking solid in South Carolina if his candidacy is not to be seriously questioned. And for Mr. Gore and Mr. Bradley, the bigger states in the East, South and the West Coasts are now the main battlegrounds for after the first two Tuesdays of March, the ``show'' is by and large over for 2000.

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