Hope rests on IRA statement

By Thomas Abraham

LONDON, FEB. 2. The Irish Government has begun efforts to persuade the Irish Republican Army (IRA) to take concrete steps towards disarmament which will save the two-month old power- sharing Government in Northern Ireland from collapsing.

A report presented to the British and Irish Governments yesterday said the IRA had not laid down any weapons so far, a finding that might force the resignation of the First Minister, Mr. David Trimble. On November 27 last year, Mr. Trimble's party, the Ulster Unionists, agreed to take part in the provincial Government on the condition that the IRA would begin decomissioning by February. That deadline not met, Mr. Trimble may choose to resign his post by the end of the week.

All-out efforts have started to try and get the IRA to make some gesture that will allow Mr.Trimble to remain in office. The Irish Prime Minister, Mr. Bertie Ahern, said only a `` day or two'' remained to achieve a breakthrough. The Ulster Unionists have asked the British Government to suspend the Assembly and have threatened to resign if Westminister does not oblige.

Sinn Fein, the IRA's political wing, has, however, warned that the suspension of the Assembly and the other institutions set up under the Good Friday agreement, will make it almost impossible to persuade the IRA to lay down its weapons. The IRA itself, in a statement yesterday, said it was ``totally committed'' to the peace process and pointed out that it had maintained a ceasefire for five years now and that the ``guns are silent.'' The statement, however, did not say when the IRA will begin to disarm.

The peace agreement signed on Good Friday in April 1998 gives the IRA and other paramilitary organisations until the end of May this year to decommission but the Ulster Unionists insist that the IRA should begin the process before then as a gesture of goodwill. The British Minister for Northern Ireland, Mr. Peter Mandelson, has so far resisted pressure for an immediate suspension of the Assembly, saying that a breakthrough is still possible. He said a ``bit of a breathing space'' was needed to explore ``whether we can't find a breakthrough at this stage.''

It is hoped that the IRA will come out with a statement that it intended to decomission, which in turn will allow Gen. John De Chastelain, the head of the international commission set up to oversee decommissioning, to report some progress. And the Ulster Unionists might be persuaded to remain in the Government.

The peace process is at a crucial juncture. If the British Government suspends the provincial Government and the other institutions, then it could mark the end of the IRA's involvement with the peace progress.

If, on the other hand, there is no suspension, then the Ulster Unionists, the main Protestant party will leave government.

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