Bush looks to South Carolina

By Sridhar Krishnaswami

WASHINGTON, FEB. 3. Still dazed from the shock defeat in New Hampshire on Tuesday, the Texas Governor, Mr. George Bush started his campaign in South Carolina on Wednesday, hoping that his conservative and very Republican credentials will give him the much needed boost on February 19.

Mr. Bush's main competitor, the Arizona Senator, Mr. John McCain too started campaign hoping for a repeat of the ``mandate'' of New Hampshire. An advantage for Mr. McCain will be that South Carolina has a high concentration of military personnel and veterans. There is no doubt that the February 19 showdown in South Carolina will be critical for Mr. Bush in the context of the ``blowout'' in New Hampshire. The Texas Governor has done long hours in this southern State and opinion polls show him in the lead over Mr. McCain by at least 15 per cent. And the State has traditionally been conservative while voting.

If the Bush campaign learnt one thing from its defeat, it is that money or heavyweight political endorsements alone cannot bring easy victory. To the credit of Mr. McCain, it has to be noted that he spent long hours in this tiny State and addressed 114 town hall meetings where voters questioned him intensively. Also, Mr. McCain did not contest in the Iowa caucus, a strategy to concentrate both time and money in New Hampshire and South Carolina.

Mr. Bush must campaign more vigorously in South Carolina, not merely to stave off another defeat but because the State is an open primary where independents and perhaps even Democrats could play a major role in the Republican battle. The New Hampshire experience showed that Mr. McCain not only dipped into Mr.Bush's Republican votes but did well with apolitical voters too. Analysts feel that if the mainstream Republican votes begin to ``wander'' then Mr. Bush is in big trouble.

South Carolina has traditionally been more conservative and down to earth with the voters more likely to identify themselves with the religious right.

Political pundits say the residents like a Presidential candidate to stand up to his beliefs - a point that went in favour of Mr. McCain in New Hampshire. Mr. McCain's military background and the fact that he was a prisoner of war at the infamous Hanoi Hilton for five years, gives him a hero status among the military brethren.

But South Carolina does not always follow New Hampshire. In 1996, for instance, Mr. Patrick Buchanan won in New Hampshire but was defeated by Mr. Robert Dole in South Carolina and four years earlier, after nearly losing to Mr. Buchanan in New Hampshire, the former President, Mr. George Bush won the next primary.

That the Texas Governor is aware of the voting pattern of the State was reflected in his speech to students of the Bob Jones University. ``I look forward to publicly defending my conservative philosophy and I look forward to making it clear to the people of this State and other States that our conservative philosophy will lead to compassionate results,'' he said.

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