No time for outbursts

AS INDIA AND Pakistan seek to position themselves for the late- March visit to the subcontinent by the U.S. President, Mr. Bill Clinton, there is a disturbing increase in hostile rhetoric on both sides. A series of statements and counter-statements have kept the bilateral tensions high. It is against some provocative statements coming from across the border that one must see Sunday's strong remarks by the Prime Minister, Mr. Vajpayee, in the town of Jalandhar that lies within hailing distance of Pakistan. But a democratic government's distinct advantage lies in its in-built capacity not to be provoked and in the underlying soundness and abundant caution of its actions and reactions. Mr. Vajpayee's strident remarks on Sunday are out of character with the confidence and strength that have marked New Delhi's responses so far. His declaration that this country is ready to ``face the nuclear threat'' and his theatrical but pointless demand for the return of occupied areas of Kashmir betrayed an inclination to oratory at the cost of moderation and statesmanship. Such hardline public poses serve little purpose and only raise the stakes at a crucial juncture in its diplomacy when New Delhi must exercise the maximum caution in the realisation that it has more than once proved itself as a responsible nuclear nation. Hardly 24 hours earlier, India had reacted correctly to Islamabad's suggestion for resumption of the stalled discussions by reiterating that Pakistan must first end hostile propaganda and support to cross-border terrorism. Mr. Vajpayee's outburst, for all the understandable provocation, came as a contrast and can only raise the stakes.

Bilateral relations, already at the lowest ebb, can do without such rhetoric. Particularly worrisome will be Mr. Vajpayee's comments on the nuclear issue. It is no secret that Pakistan grabbed the opportunity provided by India to explode the bomb and instantly - and for ever - neutralised the conventional arms superiority enjoyed by this country. Considering that no government in Pakistan will surrender this advantage by accepting the no-first-use offer, it was strange for the Prime Minister to talk of a fitting reply, et al, to a nuclear attack. This was platform oratory that might have sounded exciting to the immediate audience but can bring the country no credit.

The spurt in bilateral rhetoric is perhaps a measure of the intense international pressure, led by the U.S., being brought to bear on both countries for some movement forward on the Kashmir issue. Tension between the two has, in fact, been rising ever since an extended Clinton visit to India was announced without a matching trip to Pakistan. A non-official campaign to prevent a Pakistani stopover vitiated the atmosphere further, forcing the military government in Islamabad to strike extreme postures. Caught between the powerful lobby of Islamic militants and their supporters in the military and unconcealed Western displeasure over his failure to announce a timetable for a return to democracy, Gen. Pervez Musharraf, the Pakistani strongman, has been blowing hot and cold. A genuine offer to resume bilateral discussions was followed by a declaration that Pakistan would peg it exclusively to Kashmir and continue to provide all assistance - funds and training - to Islamic militants fighting in Kashmir. This is perhaps more a reflection of the contradictory forces at play than a disinclination to resile from a hardline stance. New Delhi must construct its responses in the coming weeks by recognising this reality, safely leaving the sabre-rattling to regimes fighting for their legitimacy on sticky domestic ground.

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Section  : Opinion
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