Laloo down but not out in Central Bihar

By V. Krishna Ananth

DANAPUR, FEB. 11. Even as the campaign for the first phase of the elections came to an end, the people in this high profile constituency neighbouring Patna, from where Mr. Laloo Prasad Yadav is seeking entry to the State Assembly, hardly displayed any interest at the polls. Barring the enthusiasm among the party ``workers'' to whom elections are perhaps the only source of little money, heated discussions in tea shops and paan kiosks on the prospects of the candidates - an integral part of the discourse in this part of the country - are conspicuously missing this time.

There are, however, other aspects of election activity: The roads passing through the Patna airport are no longer deserted, as it used to be normal times for most part of the day; a stream of bigwigs landing in and taking off on their helicopters (at least eight of them now in operation) keep the roads busy.

And Patna city, whose narrow roads are even otherwise a harrowing experience to anyone, have turned worse with the VIPs - name any Union Minister from Bihar and they are in Patna - driving in and out of the State capital.

Not a day passes without a Union Minister addressing the people of Danapur (or any other constituency) extolling them for their ``sharp political senses'' and then urging them to make use of that to defeat Mr. Laloo Yadav; ``he has pushed Bihar into bankruptcy... end this jungle raj...'' is the common refrain of all the ``big men'' from the NDA. But then, all this is rhetoric says Awdesh Kumar Singh, a local lad; ``Ramanand Yadav, NDA's candidate here was among Laloo Yadav's trusted managers until September 1999... he was Laloo Yadav's candidate from Patna West Assembly segment in 1995.''

He was among those who managed the crowds that ransacked the Patna airport when the CBI team landed there to interrogate Mr. Laloo Yadav in September 1997. ``He left the RJD only when he was denied a ticket by the party in the last general elections and now the BJP wants to end the jungle raj with such persons!'' exclaims Rajkishore, at a telephone booth even while Mr. Sharad Yadav addressed a ``large'' crowd of about 500 people in the vicinity.

Such doubts over the NDA's ``commitment'' to cleanse the political stable are raised all over. For instance, in Mokamma (Mr. Nitish Kumar's backyard), the Samata Party has retired its nominee (Mr. Dilip Kumar Patel) in favour of Mr. Surajbhan Singh, an independent candidate, now in jail. ``Cite any offense in the Indian Penal Code and Surajbhan Singh is accused of that... He had helped Nitish manage the elections in September 1999 and the Samata Party is rewarding him for that.'' This was a fleet operator from neighbouring Bhaktiarpur; he hastens to add that with Mr. Surajbhan in the fray, Mr. Dilip Singh (RJD nominee), once again known for his muscle power can hardly have his way in Mokamma.

Indeed, use of muscle power and other means are not new to the poll process in this region. And if Mr. Laloo Yadav could ensure victory for himself and his nominees during the past one decade, it was only because the Yadavs had turned assertive during this period. And the post-mandal social chemistry led the Dalits - accounting for at least 20 per cent of the voters - into Mr. Laloo Yadav's fold in the ``natural'' course and along with the minority community votes, there was nothing that could stop Mr. Laloo Yadav's march in the State.

All these, are now history. Members of the minority community to the last person, are with the RJD; the Gujarat Government's order regarding the RSS, the utterances from Uttar Pradesh and the Bill regulating construction of places of worship have reinforced the RJD's base among the Muslims. ``We did vote for the Samata Party last time and we thought he could be trusted... but see what is happening,'' said Mr. Shamim Akthar at Bihar Sharif. He was referring to the massive support Mr. George Fernandes received from Nalanda in the past few elections despite having been in the BJP's company.

Similarly, despite all the campaign by the NDA's leaders, one hardly comes across any angry reaction to the Laloo regime in the countryside. But then, the empathy one used to find for Mr. Laloo Yadav at times of elections in the past few years is also missing. ``It looks like end of the road to Laloo Yadav in this election... he may have to sit in the Opposition for now... and let us see what the others are going to do.'' This was Rajnandan Yadav, mukhia of Gigar ganj, considered Mr. Laloo Yadav's den.

He, along with his kinsmen will certainly vote for the RJD but then the sense of purpose he (and others like him) had in the past couple of elections is not there. Rajnandan is convinced that the social churning, initiated by Mr. Laloo Yadav since he became Chief Minister in 1990, is now irreversible. ``They (the upper castes - Bhoomihars and the Rajputs) cannot revert back to the stage where we (the intermediate castes) were kept out of the political set up. We have learnt to assert and it hardly matters whether Laloo Yadav is the Chief Minister or not.'' This was Baleswar Rai at Danapur.

Add to this lack of passion among the Yadavs towards Mr. Laloo Yadav and his RJD, the alienation of the Dalits (the Paswans) thanks to Mr. Ram Vilas Paswan in the NDA bandwagon. And Mr. Laloo Yadav, the ``natural'' leader of Bihar's poor and socially underprivileged is down. Apart from the stiff challenge he himself faces in Danapur - where even a marginal split among the Yadav voters could mean defeat for the mandal messiah for that could add up to a winning combination to the BJP nominee who is already assured of support from the anti-mandal upper castes and a large section of the Dalits (thanks to Mr. Paswan) - Mr. Laloo Yadav's writ is no longer all that effective in many other places.

But then, the anger against his regime too is not all that visible; and in an election where passions - an essential feature of politics in the State since August 1990, when the Mandal Commission report was implemented - can hardly be seen, the results could be as prosaic as the poll campaign is. The only signal that could be caught at this stage - end of campaign for phase-I of the three phase election schedule - is that the RJD's fortunes are down; but then, Mr. Laloo Yadav, is certainly not out.

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