It is BJP vs rest in South Bihar

By B. Muralidhar Reddy

RANCHI, FEB.11. It is advantage BJP in the southern part of Bihar - popularly known as Jharkhand region - even as the curtains came down on Thursday evening for 69 of the 81 Assembly segments which will have polling in the first phase of election in the State tomorrow.

While no one has any doubt that the BJP will emerge as the number one political force in the current round of election in the region, the question in every one's mind is whether the party would be able to retain the kind of supremacy it demonstrated in two successive Lok Sabha elections in 1998 and 1999.

In 1998, the BJP won 12 of the 14 Lok Sabha seats in the region. However, its tally came down to 11 in the 1999 election. The Congress(I) won two seats and the remaining one seat went to the Rashtriya Janata Dal. For the second successive election the Jharkhand parties, which have been in the forefront of several popular movements for the identity of tribals and their rights, drew a blank.

A variety of factors have contributed to the rise of the BJP in this essentially tribal, Christian and Muslim dominated region, particularly in the nineties. These include collapse of the Congress(I), factional wars in Jharkhand parties and a very successful campaign by the well-oiled machinery of the Sangh Parivar to divide people of the region on several counts.

As a result, the BJP has succeeded in creating for itself a committed vote bank among a significant section of the `Hindu' tribals, non-tribals are migrants to the region. The slogan of a separate state of Vananchal (Jharkhand) has helped the BJP ear the goodwill of sizable section of the electorate. Jharkhand parties, which have been engaged in struggle for a separate state for decades, are reduced to the status of mute spectators to the emergence of the Hindutva party as the dominant political force.

In every successive election in the nineties, the BJP has proved to be the main political force in Jharkhand by securing over 30 per cent of the popular vote. Rivals of the BJP (Congress, Jharkhand parties and RJD) are no where near it in terms of popular vote. In other words if it is Laloo vs the rest in the north and central parts of Bihar, it is BJP vs the rest here.

But alas unlike the north and central parts where all the anti- Laloo forces have ganged up, the anti-BJP forces in Jharkhand are totally divided. As a result the BJP with just over 30 per cent of popular vote is in a position to sweep the state.

In the Lok Sabha election held just five months ago, the BJP had established lead in 51 Assembly segments. A tour of some of the Assembly segments in the region shows that there is not much change in the ground situation though a number of voters who had opted for BJP are unhappy with the party for not fulfilling its promise on creation of separate state in the very first session of the parliament after the Lok Sabha election.

The biggest advantage for the BJP is the disunity among the non- BJP parties. The Congress(I) which suffered serious erosion in its traditional support base still continues to be a major force in the region but does not appear to be a in a position to take on the BJP on its own. At one stage the Congress tried to rope in the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (Soren) as an ally but did not succeed. Had the Congress succeeded in entering into an alliance with JMM, it would have been a different story.

The Congress(I) is also finding it difficult to counter the promise of creation of separate state by the BJP.

As a result the campaign of the Congress(I) that the BJP has betrayed the people on the Jharkhand issue is not cutting much ice. Alliance between the Congress(I) and the RJD which is bitterly opposed to the idea of a separate Jharkhand is still fresh in the minds of the people here.

The RJD which is in the fray on its own is fighting the election in the region with its hands tied to the back. Opposition to the demand or a separate state by the RJD has not gone down well with the people in the region and the party can hope to make a mark only in bout half-a-dozen constituencies dominated by Yadavs.

The Jharkhand parties continue to be divided and the only section which appears to have some base is the JMM led by former MP, Mr. Shibu Soren. While it suffered another split with Mr. Suraj mandal forming his own party, the Soren faction received a shot in the arm when three other factions merged with it.

The ground situation is in BJP's favour on more than one count. Party leaders believe that the Vajpayee factor played a decisive role in the Lok Sabha election and they fear that the same would not work out now. They are also worried over the possibility of polarisation of the Christian voters who are in favour of the Congress.

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