Ulster talks on for a breakthrough

By Thomas Abraham

LONDON, FEB. 11. The crisis over Northern Ireland reached boiling point today, as the British Government prepared to restore direct rule to the province barring a last minute announcement from the IRA that it was prepared to lay down its weapons.

The Legislation suspending the Northern Ireland Assembly has been rushed through Parliament, and it is for the British Minister in charge of Northern Ireland, Mr. Mandelson, to decide when to give effect to it.

Mr. Mandelson faces a stark choice: if he does not dissolve the Assembly, the leader of the Ulster Unionists, Mr. David Trimble, will resign his post as First Minister of Northern Ireland, probably giving way to a more hardline leader. If he does dissolve it, the Sinn Fein, political wing of the IRA, will be furious, and its leaders have indicated that any prospect of getting the IRA lay down its weapons will vanish.

Last minute negotiations are on to avert a disaster. Mr. Trimble met the Irish Taoiseach (Prime Minister), Mr. Bertie Ahern, in Dublin to discuss the Irish Government's efforts to persuade the IRA to move towards decommissioning. After their meeting, Mr. Ahern said he would continue working until the last minute to rescue the peace agreement. ``I am conscious of time but regardless, we must work on.'' He, however, said even if this present crisis could not be averted, the peace process could still be rescued. ``If we can find resolution now, great. If not, we just have to keep at it. We will keep on working together,'' he said.

The British Government is not optimistic of a breakthrough and a spokesman for the Prime Minister said something ``fairly dramatic'' would have to happen to keep the Northern Ireland Assembly alive.

The crisis has been triggered by a demand by the Ulster Unionists that the IRA at least make a token gesture towards decommissioning by the beginning of February. The peace agreement sets a deadline of May 22 to end the process but does not say when it should begin.

The Sinn Fein has argued that the deadline of February has been arbitrarily imposed by the Ulster Unionists, and has urged the British Government not to take notice of it. Those elements in the Sinn Fein and the IRA, who have argued within the organisation in favour of participating in the political process and trying to achieve their political aims through democratic means, fear that a suspension of the Government will hand a victory to hardliners within the organisation.

But there is increasing impatience across the political spectrum in Northern Ireland with the IRA for its refusal to move on laying down its weapons. The IRA has said that it has maintained a ceasefire for five years now, and effectively put aside its weapons.

The IRA clearly faces a major psychological hurdle in decommissioning its weapons. It sees itself as an army which was formed to fight Britain. To lay down its weapons at a time when Northern Ireland is still part of the United Kingdom is seen as a surrender. It has indicated unequivocally that it is committed to the peace agreement and has no intention of resuming its armed struggle. But it cannot hand its weapons over. Instead, what the Sinn Fein and the IRA appear to be contemplating is assuring the British Government that its weapons will be effectively decommissioned by a permanent ceasefire.

This, however, is not good enough for the Ulster Unionists or the British Government, who want to see a hand over of weapons and a definite end to the IRA's existence as an armed organisation.

Barring a last minute miracle, Mr. Mandelson is expected to suspend the Assembly and suggest a ``cooling off period'' and a review of the peace process to find a way forward. But clearly the longer the review lasts, the more difficult it will to be restart the momentum that had built up behind the peace process.

Ironically, the suspension of the two-month-old Northern Ireland Government will come at a time when it had just begun to hit its stride, with the Protestant and Catholic Ministers learning to work together.

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