Iran says a resounding yes to reform

By Kesava Menon

TEHERAN, FEB. 19. The results of the elections to the Iranian Parliament, held yesterday, will begin to trickle in from late today or early tomorrow and it may take three weeks before the official count is delcared. All indications suggest that there will be no major deviation from the impression formed on the day of polling that reform groups are heading for a massive victory. Whether the verdict will deal a death blow to the clerical establishment can be gauged only after the final shape of the next parliament is known (following a second round of voting, if necessary). But a forecast has been delivered by the manner in which the pro-reform vote consolidated itself despite the odds.

From a random survey, covering over a dozen polling stations from the north to the south of this city, it was quite apparent that the pro-reform groups - known collectively as Khordad-2 - were heading for a thumping win. (The second day in the month of Khordad in the Iranian calendar was the date, corresponding to May 23, 1997 on which Mr. Mohammad Khatami won the Presidential election). Sources from across the city seconded the opinion, adding that a similar pattern of voting was discernible in the other major urban centres of Iran. Actually, a study of the voting pattern in Teheran itself can provide an assessment of the nationwide trend since the capital, which has immigrants from all over Iran, is a micro-cosm of the country as a whole.

Polling went on till late last night and even at 9 pm long queues could be seen at the polling stations. By early evening when the trends were assessable, the leaders of the main group within Khordad-2 were claiming that they would get at least 60 per cent of the seats in Parliament. Although the performance of the conservatives may pick up once the rural vote begins to be counted (the official results from rural constituencies could come in before that of the urban areas), this initial assessment by the Khordad-2 leaders may prove to be an underestimate. Mr. Khatami won between 70 and 80 per cent of the vote in 1997 and his followers seem to be doing as well this time.

Just as significant as the size of the pro-reform vote was the quality of it. Every single pro-reform voter this correspondent spoke to appeared to have invested strong emotions into his choice. While the Khordad-2 panel elicited a positive response, anger and disgust at the conservatives were evident. This was especially true in the case of the former President, Mr. Hashemi Rafsanjani. Mr. Rafsanjani fought the election as the leader of the basically reformist-minded executives of the Construction party, but he personally allied himself with the conservative Jama'e Rouhaniyate Moabarez (Association of the Combatant Clergy) and stood as their candidate for the Speaker's post.

In deciding to contest the elections (after having already served as Speaker for eight years in the Eighties and as President for another eight) and by aligning himself with the conservatives, Mr. Rafsanjani created the impression among the voters that he was about to sabotage the reform process for his personal interest. There is already a widespread public opinion that Mr. Rafsanjani's years in office were marked by corruption and ruthlessness. Though votes were being cast for those candidates on the executives' panel, every voter who did so made it a point to mention that Mr. Rafsanjani was the exception.

The fact of Mr. Rafsanjani being singularly marked out was symptomatic of the widespread anger against the Jama'e and others who have tried to obstruct the reform process. In this context, it is worth mentioning that the few who did admit to voting for the Jama'e were, in contrast to pro-reform voters, defensive in talking about their choice. The nature of the pro- reform sentiment provides part of the explanation for how it consolidated itself despite the odds. The desire for change was so strong that it manifested itself with particularly sharp focus on those candidates who unequivocally stood for change.

Although the Jama'e has not formally constituted itself as a party, it is organisationally far older than the pro- reform parties; it is also the party of the establishment. In contrast, the main Khordad-2 force, the Islamic Iran Participation Front (or Moshareqat in the local parlance) was but recently formed and its main ally, the Majma'e Rouhaniyoune Moabarez (Society of Combatant Clerics) was a marginal force till three years ago. While the Moshareqat and Majma had many candidates in common in all the constituencies, there were discrepancies as well. It was thought before the election that these discrepancies would prove to be a major disadvantage but the pro-reform sentiment was so strong that the fears were belied.

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