Beijing begins its own 'campaign'

By F. J. Khergamvala

TOKYO, FEB. 22. Mainland China has begun its Taiwan `election campaign as earnestly as the candidates vying for the top elected executive job in Taiwan. In the run up to the March 18 elections, the rhetoric from Beijing is likely to rise but unlike 1996, no military intimidation is likely to be tolerated.

In another indication that conservatives and the Peoples Liberation Army (PLA) have been on the ascendant, China's State Council (Cabinet) fired its first salvo at Taiwan on Monday by way of an official government position paper on Taiwan. Deliberately, rather than coincidentally, it was the same day that the campaign for the second direct Presidential election in Taiwan officially got under way.

China threatened that ``if the Taiwan authorities refuse the peaceful settlement of cross strait (Taiwan strait) reunification through negotiations, the Chinese Government will be forced to take all drastic measures possible, including the use of force.'' The statement was issued in a White Paper that seemed to reflect more the views of the PLA than the civilian leadership whose moderation was challenged after the U.S. bombing of the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade during the Balkans campaign last year.

The other main elements constituting the Chinese missive were that China would be right in attacking the island if the U.S. continued military sales to Taiwan; Taiwan officially changed its Constitution which acknowledges there is `one China.' Each of these elements, though apparently directly threatening in tone, has vagueness built into them to satisfy a radical domestic constituency on the mainland, meet silent U.S. warnings to keep a hands-off policy on Taiwan's elections and send a warning to Taiwan to, at the very least, maintain the status quo.

Unless the missive is a forerunner to the 1996 type of missiles, there is not much that should disturb the region or upset either of the three main candidates to succeed Mr. Lee Teng-hui. For instance, the threat to take armed action unless negotiations were held does not carry any time frame to begin unification talks. Nor have the Taiwan leaders refused negotiations. Only some conditions have been attached.

Contrary to some implications that Beijing has modified its earlier threat to take action only if Taiwan declares independence, the warning is indeed contained in the statement that cautions the island against changing the Constitution. Finally, the White Paper claims arms supplies to Taiwan as moral and political justification to take action but does not go to the brink in linking an actual attack if arms supplies continued.

The Vice-President, Mr. Lien Chan, who belongs to the ruling Kuomintang party (KMT), Mr James Soong, a breakaway from the KMT contesting as an independent and Mr. Chen Shui-bian from the opposition Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) are the main candidates. The DPP is the traditional mainland baiter. The fact that polls show that Mr. Chen is right up front with the two other candidates could be one reason for the timing for Beijing's statement. It is ironic that China is known to favour Mr. Lee Teng-hui's nominee, Mr. Lien Chan to win the elections. In its White Paper, Beijing continued its slander campaign against Mr. Lee but was careful not to attack the KMT party.

In 1995 and in the weeks preceding the March 1996 elections, China held missile firing exercises across the Taiwan Strait, threatening shipping, raising the cost of premia and sending the Taipei stock exchange and the New Taiwan dollar down. The U.S. sent two carrier battle groups to the region to stay Beijing's hand. Recently, China obtained a Russian built Sovremenny class destroyer with SS-N-22 Sunburn missiles, to flaunt its blue water capability.

However, this time, in the middle of a U.S. Presidential campaign, China is aware that the tolerance threshold for any military moves is low in the U.S. and in this region still recovering from an economic crisis. The strong words as well as a `leaked' article in a German magazine, about China's military preparedness, should relieve some frustration.

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Section  : International
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