Globalisation for prosperity?

THE WORLD IN 2020 TOWARDS A NEW GLOBAL AGE: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), Oxford & IBH Publishing Co. Pvt. Ltd., 66, Janpath, New Delhi-110001. Rs. 395.

WHETHER IT is the so-called ignorant and superstitious villager or a mighty international organisation, the desire to take a peep at the future is irresistible. The methods may be different and even the purpose for which this exercise is done could be distinct, the act of trying to understand how their fortunes will alter hereafter is the same. The OECD, the club of the richest nations, has made an attempt in this slim book to foresee what the world's economy will look like exactly two decades from now.

Mr. Donald Johnson, secretary-general of the OECD, has claimed in the preface that this report ``sets out a vision of the world economy'' in the year 2020. But actually there are two visions of the future. While both of them are broadly optimistic, one is more so than the other. According to the report, the last few decades have profoundly changed the face of the global economy for the better, thanks to extraordinary acceleration in technological progress, and profoundly productive policy changes leading to a high degree of globalisation and substantial improvement in the economic welfare. However not all nations have equally benefited from this improved performance of the global economy.

Along with economic growth, the world has also witnessed the serious problem of environmental deterioration on an unprecedented scale. Consequently the challenge facing the world leaders and policy-makers of individual nations is to accelerate economic growth and enable the less fortunate nations to share in this prosperous outcome, but at the same time prevent the environment from deteriorating further. The report is confident that there is enough knowledge and experience available about the policy measures needed to achieve this desirable state. All that we need is for the individual countries and the world as a whole to pursue the goal with a single-minded determination.

The way to a prosperous future is seen in globalisation and international cooperation. The more the world adopts policies of this nature, the more, we are assured, will be the increase in global prosperity. The report visualises two scenarios, a high- growth and a low- growth. On the basis of what happened during the quarter century from 1971 are conceived these two probable future outcomes depending upon the policies adopted and technical factors present. The high-growth will be achieved only if policies such as reducing tariffs to zero by 2020, removing all export taxes and subsidies, fiscal consolidation, and implementation of labour-market reforms subject to technical constraints are implemented. The report is conscious that rapid growth, associated with a high-growth scenario, will necessarily add to environmental stresses, but it feels that if environmental considerations are integrated into sectoral policies, pressures on environment can be substantially eased.

The value of this interesting exercise is the light it throws on how the rich man's club thinks about the future they would like the world to enjoy. Naturally in that version, its own priorities are unobtrusively emphasised. Like all optimistic projections, this report too underplays the vast imponderables and undoubted obstacles that must be crossed before reaching the projected future. When, for example, there is no unanimity of opinion even among the members of the OECD countries, how can we be sanguine about the cooperation between north and south with their very different problems and objectives? If the reader is not beguiled by its sweet reasonableness and professional presentation to think that it is the final truth, he will be amply educated by a careful reading of this report.

S. AMBIRAJAN

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