China and Taiwan

THE VERDICT IN the presidential election in Taiwan is an undoubted setback for the Chinese leadership and for peace in the region. If the two sides do not show restraint in their reaction, the verdict has the potential to further heighten tensions across the straits. The victory of the one candidate China wanted defeated in the elections, Mr. Chen Shui-bian, is a challenge to Beijing's long cherished one-China policy and it will demand great tact and diplomacy to tackle this, not just relying on hardline rhetoric as had flowed from the mainland in the run-up to the election. In remarks after his week-end victory, Mr. Chen has sounded conciliatory, promising to keep an open mind and expressing a readiness to go to Beijing. But his initial platform of independence had invited harsh words from China which will watch his every move. There was every indication during the session of the National People's Congress, the Chinese Parliament, which preceded the Taiwan poll that the party leadership was seriously worried about the impact of the verdict and orchestrated its own campaign. The President, Mr. Jiang Zemin, the Prime Minister, Mr. Zhu Rongji, and the army leadership all deemed it necessary to warn of the doom that would greet any Taiwanese move toward independence.

In the end, much as Beijing had feared, the Chinese Government's first electioneering campaign has failed to gain its primary objective. In the second Presidential elections in Taiwan, the most conspicuous non-candidate was Beijing which issued repeated warnings against support to candidates who stood for independence. Four years ago, during the first such democratic exercise, China had lobbed missiles across the waters separating the two in an effort to prevent the victory of a pro-independence candidate. This time, as the election date neared and the warning notes from Beijing sounded ominous, fears were expressed that the Chinese authorities may be planning more drastic measures if the verdict threatened their goal of unification. While it is doubtful if China contributed to the victory of Mr. Chen, it certainly dominated the election. Mr. Chen had entered politics as an advocate of independence for Taiwan, the island where the forces of Chiang Kai-shek fled when Mao Zedong and his communists seized control of the Chinese mainland in 1949. Chiang and later his son imposed a harsh martial law regime and, with the support of the U.S., continued the charade for decades that they represented all of China. In the early Eighties, China offered Taiwan ``peaceful reunification'' with a high degree of autonomy under the now famous ``one country, two systems'' policy under which Hong Kong and other territories have returned to the mainland. The inheritors of Chiang's political legacy, who continued to talk of the mainland merging with their territory, footdragged and soon discovered the merits of the democratic system which gave the Taiwanese the right to determine their destiny. It was a ploy, much like the British Governor's in Hong Kong.

China sees ``a splittist conspiracy'' in this and other moves, a concerted effort to undermine the one-China policy accepted by the international community. While Beijing says there is one China and that Taiwan is a part of it, Taiwan says China is a divided country ruled by two governments. Tensions rose after Mr. Lee Teng-hui, the hawkish outgoing President, spoke of Taiwan and the mainland having ``a special State-to-State relationship'', clearly seeking sovereignty for the Taiwanese territory. Beijing realises there cannot be a military solution, especially in the context of the huge flow of Western arms into Taiwan. After its sabre-rattling, it must hope that the U.S., the patron-in-chief of the breakaway province, will persuade the island to give up its ill-advised moves and reconcile itself to taking such political steps that would pave the way for an eventual reunification with China.

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