Crunch time for Sharif party

By Amit Baruah

KARACHI, APRIL 5. On April 4, 1979, a civilian Prime Minister, Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto, was hanged to death. Twenty-one years later, a special anti-terrorist court (ATC) will decide on April 6, 2000, the fate of another civilian Prime Minister, Mr. Nawaz Sharif.

The charismatic and controversial Bhutto had to be permanently buried since he remained a threat to the Zia-ul-Haq regime even while he was inside prison. Removed from office in a military coup in July 1977, Bhutto, like Mr. Sharif, was guilty of abusing his power of office. However, the remedy proved to be worse than the disease.

Mr. Sharif is in a different league. Handpicked by the military to exercise power, he had little experience of mass politics, but had loads of ambition to exercise untrammelled power - a proposition that was unacceptable to the only ``real'' political party in Pakistan - the Army.

There is little doubt that Bhutto was hanged because the military regime feared him. Mr. Sharif, on the other hand, does not pose any such challenge. Beyond nuisance value and the element of possible sympathy about his fate, the ousted Prime Minister has little to show for himself by way of support from the people of Pakistan.

Charged with hijacking, kidnapping and attempt to murder for his role in diverting the aircraft of the Army Chief, Gen. Pervez Musharraf, on October 12, 1999, Mr. Sharif's fate will be decided in the case where the trial lasted nearly three months.

Along with Mr. Sharif, his brother and former Punjab Chief Minister, Mr. Shahbaz Sharif, Mr. Saeed Mehdi, a senior official, Mr. Saif- ur-Rehman, former anti-corruption boss, Mr. Shahid Khaqan Abbasi, former PIA chairman, Mr. Rana Maqbool, former IGP (Sindh), and Mr. Ghaus Ali Shah, former adviser to the Prime Minister, are facing midnight charges.

In a sense, the legitimacy of Gen. Musharraf's coup hinges on the judgment to be delivered tomorrow by the ATC judge, Mr. Rehmat Hussain Jaffri. A verdict against the military is not seen as a likely outcome by most political pundits in Pakistan.

Quite apart from midnight amendments to the special ATC on December 2, 1999, and transfer of the case from one judge to another, the legal aspects of the hijacking case have been under focus from day one. The defence has pointed to the delay in the filing of the FIR itself - one month after the offence was committed.

On January 19, 2000, Mr. Sharif and his six associates were formally charged with attempted murder, kidnapping and hijacking while Mr. Jaffri, dropped the charge of waging war against the State.

Earlier, on January 12, Mr. Justice Shabbir Ahmed of the Sindh High Court, to whom the case was sent, returned it to Mr. Jaffri after finding the presence of a large number of plainclothes policemen in his court. ``I cannot provide a fair trial under the circumstances,'' Mr. Justice Ahmed stated then.

It is a sad fact of Pakistani politics that changes in Government have not come about through the ballot box. They have either come through direct intervention by the Army or through Article 58 (2) (b) of the Constitution - which allowed the President to dismiss an elected Government. That provision was repealed by Mr. Sharif in March 1997.

Given the reality that the charge of hijacking carries death penalty, Mr. Sharif can theoretically be sentenced to death. If that happens, then the international community will start pressuring the Musharraf Government. On the other hand, if he gets a sentence of 10 years or above, then the issue is not likely to grab too much attention.

The failure of Mr. Sharif's party to show any teeth and play along with the military Government is also an indication that everyone in the PML (N) knows that the Sharifs are a closed chapter in Pakistani politics. The military will ensure that.

However, Begum Kulsoom Nawaz has been trying her best to gather party activists in a bid to save her husband. Formally, she has not achieved much success. The judgment tomorrow and its response will show how much support she has been able to garner within the party.

Ranged against her are large number of leaders who are openly demanding that Mr. Sharif cease to be party president.

It is crunch time for Mr. Sharif's party. A split in the PML(N) could well be one of the first results of tomorrow's verdict.

No protests, say supporters

AP reports:

Mr. Sharif's supporters say they will not stage demonstrations should the ex-Prime Minister be found guilty. ``We will not ask our party workers to break the law or stage violent protests should he be convicted by the special court,'' said Mr. Raja Zafarul Haq, a spokesman for the PML(N). But the party will challenge a conviction in court. Mr. Haq said Mr. Sharif's wife would be asked not to break party ranks and operate independently. ``One can understand her anxiety, but the party has no plans to confront the army and we are sure that Mrs. Nawaz Sharif will abide by the party decision,'' he said.

``There is a perception abroad that the courts are not free and fair here. A death sentence will enforce this perception,'' Mr. Haq sai.

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