Changes in Iran may transform the region

By Kesava Menon

MANAMA (BAHRAIN) APRIL 10. Take a transparent plastic sheet and place it over that portion of a world map that depicts West and Central Asia. Forget about the current political borders and trace on the sheet the block of territory which contains fuel resources, proven or potential. What you have is a swathe of territory which runs from the south-west to the north-east and beyond the western boundaries of Pakistan and Afghanistan.

If a few, not extremely unlikely events happen, that fuel-rich swathe of territory could become a powerful economic and political bloc within the time-frame in which Pakistan and Afghanistan have dealt themselves out as serious contenders in international politics.

This swathe of territory is, of course, what U.S. analysts have labelled as the ``New Middle East'' for quite some time now. The countries that fall into this bloc have common resources and, therefore, common interests and it does not hurt that most of their people share a common religion and to great degrees a common history and culture as well.

This bloc has not become a reality due to various political and economic complications. But it must be remembered that the mere possibility of such a bloc's emergence arose but a decade ago with the collapse of the Soviet Union. One development, which is almost around the corner, could transform this bloc into something real.

If the democratic transformation in Iran goes through successfully, it could change the entire geo-politics of West and Central Asia. The democratisation of Iran should put an end to the USA's illogical view that could even be characterised as being contrary to nature that Iran does not provide the best possible bridge between West and Central Asia. If the grid-work of oil and natural gas pipelines, and concomitant political relations, is set up (and logic dictates that this process will not be postponed forever) the world will be a very different place.

When viewed in the very short term perspective, the democratic transformation in Iran is currently in suspended animation. A second round of polling for the parliamentary elections has yet to take place and the world will know in which direction Iran is headed only after the Speaker is elected and the identity of Parliament is clearly established. It is possible that the pro- reform wave could still be stalled and it is certain that the struggle between reformers and conservatives will convulse Iran for quite some time. But massive pro-reform votes in three consecutive elections leaves very little doubt about what the Iranian polity will be like in a few years time. It will be very difficult for the U.S., which has shunned theocratic Iran, to deny democratic Iran its true place in the world and the dance has already begun.

The U.S. Secretary of State, Ms. Madeleine Albright, made the most recent significant move when she expressed regret for her country's past actions that had led to the estrangement with Iran. More relevantly, the Iranians have not responded with the sort of haughty disdain that they were wont to in the past. Their response, if it can be summarised in a few words, has been something like this ``Give us something more, give us an apology, humble yourselves a little''.

Certain other dots can be connected on the tracing sheet. Iran has overcome its annoyance with Saudi Arabia over the recent OPEC production hike and signalled that the strengthening of its ties with the Kingdom is more important than the financial loss.

The Iranian Defence Minister is to travel to Saudi Arabia soon in continuation of the swiftly improving relations. Everyone knows that Iran's declared policy of setting up a strategic alliance of the Gulf countries which will exclude the U.S. from the region is a pipe-dream. But the Iranians too probably recognise this and appear intent on establishing a whole network of subliminal ties, leaving the concept of an overarching alliance as something for the future.

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Section  : International
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