A crown of thorns

THE SWIFT AND decisive election of Mr. Yoshiro Mori as the President of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Prime Minister of Japan last week shows the urgency of the situation. The change of guard in Tokyo takes place at a critical juncture when the Japanese economy is on the mend and elections to the House of Representatives are due later in the year. It was unfortunate that the dynamic Mr. Keizo Obuchi suffered a stroke and is battling for life in a Tokyo hospital. Japan is preparing to host the G-8 summit in July and elections to the Lower House, the Diet, are to be held by October. It was under these circumstances that the LDP acted swiftly to effect a quick and smooth change-over at the helm. Being the influential Secretary- General of the party and a close friend of Mr. Obuchi, the LDP strongman, Mr. Mori, had little difficulty in getting crowned last Wednesday. Only, the crown will be one of thorns. The challenges facing the Mori regime are so daunting that it is just not enough to stick to the Obuchi policies and plans. He may be a veteran politician on the domestic platform, but has little to show on international diplomacy.

By retaining the old Cabinet and hammering out a new agreement for a coalition with the Komeito party and the Conservatives, Mr. Mori has tried to reassure the markets and the international community that his administration will in effect be a continuation of all that his predecessor was doing. But the worrisome fact remains that Mr. Obuchi, while trying to re-ignite economic recovery, has built up a huge debt of $840 billion. That Obuchi legacy passes to Mr. Mori, the journalist-turned politician. Since all the Ministers are continuing in office, there should be no slackening of pace in the administration. But it remains to be seen if the Tokyo market and the East Asian countries repose the same confidence in the new Japanese leader. Like so many other Japanese politicians, Mr. Mori was also tainted by scandals - the 1988 Recruit scandal and another one related to an oil deal in 1997. He has held various Ministerial positions before, but what is important, the shrewd politician has never lost an election to Parliament in a career spanning about three decades. The Japanese must be hoping that his experience and his hand on the people's pulse will help him stabilise economic recovery.

Recent opinion polls have shown that the coalition Mr. Obuchi put together for political stability was not very popular. Just before his collapse, Mr. Obuchi ended the partnership with Jiyuto or the Liberal party led by Mr. Ichiro Ozawa. Apart from preparing for the G-8 summit, the Prime Minister and his new coalition must decide on a convenient date for the parliamentary elections. The Government's action plan and the pending agenda before Parliament may be determined by the timing of the poll. The Finance Minister, Mr. Kiichi Miyazawa, himself a former Premier, has been trying to assist the Southeast Asian economies in their recovery. He has been pushing for an Asian currency pact to prevent another 1997-type currency turmoil in the region. But the real challenge seems to be the record unemployment rate, which climbed to an all time high of 4.9 per cent in February. Similarly, the Foreign Ministry launched a series of diplomatic initiatives in Asia and in the West, to ensure a say for Japan in the international stage and institutions. Though Tokyo made a bid for the Managing Directorship of the IMF, it had to withdraw in favour of Germany whose nominee finally won Washington's backing. Instead of being seen as the handmaid of the U.S., Japan will have to establish its credentials as an Asian power, by speaking up for the rest of Asia. Aid and dollar diplomacy cannot take it very far.

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