Israeli move leaves many issues unresolved

By Kesava Menon

MANAMA (BAHRAIN), APRIL 19. Israel has formally notified the U.N.

Secretary-General, Mr. Kofi Annan, of its intention to withdraw from the zone it occupies in southern Lebanon by the first week of July. With time being so short, it is almost certain that such a withdrawal will be a unilateral move by Israel and not one to be carried out under the terms of an agreement with Lebanon. But Lebanon and Syria, which has great influence over its western neighbour, have misgivings about a unilateral Israeli withdrawal. But they will probably have to face the inevitable and address the serious issues which will be thrown up by the pull-out.

So long as the prospect for talks between Israel and Syria are fair, there is a chance that negotiations between Israel and Lebanon too could follow in quick order. Since negotiations on the Syria-Israel tracks are frozen and since there is very little chance that Lebanon will break ranks with its Arab partner, there is now very little chance that Israel could pull its troops out of Lebanon under the terms of an agreement with Beirut.

Sans an agreement with Israel, Lebanon believes that Israel's security is none of its concern. They want the UNIFIL to concentrate on its original mandate and the multinational force will probably have its task cut out in fulfilling this role alone.

Depending on the mode and time-frame of the Israeli withdrawal, southern Lebanon could turn into a zone of unrestricted combat between the pro and anti-Israel militias operating there. Israel also told the U.N. that it would take in between 3000 and 4000 members of the South Lebanon Army the militia which has been assisting it in its occupation of the southern zone.

From earlier published accounts of the SLA's strength, the figure would appear to account for nearly the whole of the militia. However, some of the SLA leaders have said that they would not leave their homes in their native Lebanon. Hezbollah, the main militia fighting the Israeli occupation has warned that the SLA members will have to submit to the Lebanese laws and court rulings under which they have either already been, or will be, tried and convicted (to death in the case of SLA senior officers) on charges of treason and collaborating with the enemy.

If the SLA responds to the Israeli offer, it will save the Lebanese Government from facing a serious problem. The fragile truce between Lebanon's ethnic groups is beginning to show signs of strain with the Maronite Christian leadership calling for an amnesty to the SLA's fighters and the Shia groups, especially the Hezbollah, determined to bring them to justice. Friction on this issue could unravel the bonds which are being slowly built between Lebanon's ethnic groups.

Lebanese released

AFP reports from Ayalon prison, Israel:

Israel has released all but two of 15 Lebanese detainees held as bargaining chips for missing Israeli servicemen, after bowing to a Supreme Court ruling, officials said. However, the two most important detainees, Sheikh Abdel Karim Obeid and Mustafa Dirani were not released.

- AFP

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Section  : International
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