A new President in the Kremlin

By Nirmala Joshi

MR. VLADIMIR PUTIN'S election as President of the Russian Federation was a foregone conclusion. Although there were eleven candidates in the fray, Mr. Putin was easily the best choice before the Russian people. Several factors worked in his favour. The most distinctive aspect about Mr. Putin, which went down very well with the Russian people, was that he represented the future. Whereas his chief opponent, Mr. Gennady Zyuganov of the Communist Party, represented the past. Another key factor was Mr. Putin's ability to convey successfully to the electorate an image of toughness.

It was his vigorous conduct of the military campaign in Chechnya as Russia's Prime Minister, despite international concerns and pressure, that helped in projecting an image of decisiveness. Besides, Mr. Putin's coherent articulation of views often convinced the people that he is a man of action and not unpredictable like his predecessor. In addition his young age and robust health is an asset. In fact, Mr. Putin presents a refreshing contrast to the sick and ailing Mr. Boris Yeltsin.

What kind of a future is expected from Mr. Putin? Indeed Mr. Putin's agenda is a formidable one, and the challenges are daunting. Nevertheless the topmost priority would have to be accorded to good governance, reassertion of the rule of law, to use Mr. Putin's phrase ``dictatorship of law''. In the political sphere, Mr. Putin's task would be to strengthen political freedom within the parameters of the laws of the land. This is absolutely essential for Mr. Putin; because of his long career in the secret service (KGB) and the common perception that he is a creature of the oligarchs a slide into authoritarianism is apprehended. Besides, the President of Russia is invested with awesome powers by the Constitution. His biggest challenge would be to prove to his detractors both within and outside that democracy under his dispensation is not an empty slogan. From the long term perspective it would be Mr. Putin's lasting contribution if he could lay the social basis for a liberal democracy to emerge in Russia. An equally challenging task would be to bring about uniformity in the existing laws. Most of the Constitutions and Charters of the regions are often at variance with the laws of the federal centre. A sound federal system is yet to emerge in Russia. This requires a well-conceived policy based on democracy and autonomy.

Mr. Putin's mettle, however, will be put to the test in his dealing with Chechnya. Bringing about a reconciliation of hearts, convincing the thousands of refugees to return back to their homes and finally to bring the alienated Chechens into the mainstream is indeed a very difficult task.

At the economic level, Mr. Putin's agenda is an equally formidable one. He has pledged his determination to continue the economic reform process. How the reform process proceeds would depend to a large extent on his ability to control the financial oligarchs. Many observers feel that this is difficult, because Mr. Putin is a creature of these oligarchs. A related task would be to create an appropriate climate for investment to flow into the country. This necessitates the strengthening of the legal framework especially the banking facilities so as to inspire investor confidence in Russia. Besides, in the social sphere, reducing unemployment, curbing the rising crime rate and lessening social strains in society by giving the people a better quality of life would be other priority tasks for Mr. Putin. Finally, given the present ferment in Russian society, it is essential to promote the ``Russian idea'', especially when the society is heterogeneous. Mr. Putin's popularity received a shot in the arm with the successful military campaign in Chechnya, which wiped out the national humiliation suffered in the earlier campaign. In short, in the domestic sphere the agenda of Mr. Putin is to weave together the economic, political and social base of the country into a single whole.

In the field of foreign policy, Mr. Putin has stated in his election campaign his intent to restore Russia's past glory as a great power. This commitment it appears has provided comfort to the wounded Russian pride. Summit level meetings would be more frequent; Mr. Yeltsin because of his ill-health was unable to provide the necessary drive to foreign policy. A shift to active diplomacy would be part of Mr. Putin's agenda.

There is no doubt that Mr. Putin would continue Russia's orientation towards the G-8 developed countries. Russian interests lie in forging friendly and cooperative relations with these countries. Herein lies the challenge for Mr. Putin. His task would be to ensure friendly ties with the West and to convince it that its interests also lie with a friendly and cooperative Russia, instead of expanding NATO eastwards. He has to also resist attempts, by some forces, to marginalise Russia. In this endeavour he would have to stand up to the West where Russia's national interests are involved, and not allow the violation of human rights to be a ground for pressuring Russia. Mr. Putin has already given ample indication that he will be able to balance the diverse forces vis-a-vis the West.

What seems certain, however, is that Russia policy in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) will be more active. The challenge here is to dispel the notion that Russia is the big brother. The CIS needs rejuvenation and streamlining of its working. Importantly, Mr. Putin should try and promote better understanding among the members. In all likelihood, the Asian component of Russia foreign policy will receive focussed attention. In this regard, relations with China have already been placed on a sound footing, and Russian-Chinese relations are likely to scale new heights in the future.

Similarly, Indo-Russian ties, which for some time were adrift, are likely to receive a powerful push. The Moscow Declaration of 1994 highlights the shared geo-political interests of the two countries and the challenges facing them. The space between Russia and India is an area of vital importance to both the countries, and developments there have a bearing on their security interests. A strategic partnership agreement is to be signed by the two countries. The quick congratulatory message sent by the Prime Minister, Mr. Atal Behari Vajpayee, to Mr. Putin reflects the Indian desire to energise its relationship with Russia. Mr. Yeltsin was unable to visit India due to health problems. It is hoped that Mr. Putin will soon make a trip to India.

Indeed the agenda before Mr. Putin is extremely challenging, strewn with imponderables. Given his long years of service and training in the secret service, he will have imbibed qualities of discipline and decisiveness. These qualities were on display during the recent military campaign in Chechnya, but they will now have to be put to good use in dealing with other vital problems. His determination and vision for the country raise new hopes for Russia.

(The writer teaches at the School of International Studies, JNU, New Delhi).

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