Monsoon forecast

Sir, - The news item ``Expert studies indicate low rainfall this year'' (The Hindu, May 4) must have sent a chill through the spine of every one of your readers. With Rajasthan and Gujarat already reeling under a heavy dose of drought, a gloomy forecast of the performance of the Southwest monsoon this year will have its own adverse effect on the economy of the country.

I remember a few decades ago (while I was in service with the India Meteorological Department), the Government never released to the Press the monsoon forecasts which anticipated a poor monsoon. This was intended to keep the anti-social elements in the dark as otherwise they would take advantage of the anticipated scarcity conditions and hoard foodgrains. But only the IMD was issuing these forecasts in those days. Now, in this age of advanced computer technology, groups of research workers/institutions are involved in research of this type. The results of their investigations cannot, obviously, be kept away from the public (in fact, their forecasts are intended to forewarn the public/Government as to what the monsoon holds in store for them).

K. Ramamurthy,

Bangalore

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