Lanka fighting poised for unexpected turns

By V.S.Sambandan

COLOMBO, MAY 15. A lull has descended on Sri Lanka's northern offensives indicating possibilities of escalation in fighting between the Government forces and the separatist Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) in the days ahead. Sri Lankan ground troops, backed by the limited air-attacks by its Air Force have, for now, checked the rebel advances, which have not seen any major shift in the territorial balance in the past few days.

The Government today said six civilians were killed in an LTTE artillery attack at Gurunagar Jetty from Pooneryn, where a joint operation by the security forces destroyed a rebel communication tower. At least 15 rebels and five soldiers were killed in six encounters in Jaffna.

The presence of the rebels at Nagar Kovil in the east, military observers point out, could result in a build-up of fighters along the eastern arm of the Peninsula for a further northern push to take the port town of Point Pedro.

With the Tigers gaining on three sectors - the Nagar Kovil, Kilali and at Ariyalai, east of Jaffna town - the options are now wide open for the rebels to move in several directions towards the northern Palaly airbase, which is still seen as a vital rebel target. A move along the fifth direction - westwards from Ariyalai - could sever military supply lines to Jaffna.

The most stunning move would be along Kilali towards Kerativu, which would link up the LTTE formations at Tanankilappu and bring the coast of the Jaffna lagoon under the rebel control. This would facilitate movement of heavy artillery as well as access to a large territory along the lagoon's coast, military observers point out.

``The threat to Jaffna remains,'' military observers said, adding the other possible moves could be along the Kilali - Chavakacheri axis, the Nagar Kovil-Point Pedro sector or along two directions from Ariyalai towards Point Pedro-Palaly.

The army, which is beefing up its positions on all these fronts, sees the situation as ``somewhat steady'' now, and are gearing up to possible rebel build-ups along any of these sectors.

By mixing conventional tactics such as manoeuvre warfare, with rebel strategies of human wave attacks, the Tigers have kept the army guessing over the next moves. Having perforated defence lines to the east of Jaffna and with a presence at Pooneryn, Pallai, and Nagar Kovil, the much of the unfolding course of the northern conflict would depend on the moves which the rebel group chooses to make.

At stake in this escalated offensive are the Jaffna town, the heartland of the decades-long separatist conflict and the northern Palaly airbase.

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Section  : International
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