Search for alternatives

By Surendra Mohan

EVEN BEFORE the Union Finance Minister turned down the pleas of the Opposition parties and several constituents of the ruling National Democratic Alliance to roll back the cuts in subsidies in urea and foodgrain supplied under teh PDS, a large number of steps taken by his Government had created disenchantment among the people. In fact, in the parliamentary history of our country, no Government has courted so much unpopularity in such a short time as this one. Agreement with the United States on removal of quantitative restrictions has created strong apprehensions in the minds of our agriculturists and industrial manufacturers. Growers of wheat, rice, cotton and soybean, in particular, have had to face a tough time. Coal mines in the eastern sector are closing down. The number of medium and small industries declaring lockouts or resorting to retrenchment has also gone up rapidly.

The burdens of price rises have also increased. Although the inflation index is below 6 per cent, the wholesale price index shows increases of over 12 per cent. Increases in the prices of petroleum products and transport costs have also contributed their mite. The general thrust of the Government's economic policies has been patently anti-poor. Industrial trade unions had therefore to launch a direct action by going on a one-day strike. They have been plagued by additional worries of the threat of drastic anti-worker amendments in labour laws.

The handling of the people and their protests by the police and other security forces has deteriorated sharply. Not only the treatment out to certain minorities' educational institutions such as the Shibli Academy in Azamgarh in Uttar Pradesh or the Jamia Millia in New Delhi, but the developments in Chattisinghpora, Tundla and Mathura confirm this fact. That the Union Government itself is getting ready with a draconian law on the lines of the infamous TADA, after several State Governments have already enacted legislation curtailing people's rights, amply demonstrates the rulers' intentions of forcing anti-people policies down the throats of the people. If one looks at the attempts to review the Constitution in this light, then it is the Articles guaranteeing civil liberties that would appear to be the obvious targets of the ruling class. It is quite possible that just as the main party in the Opposition has joined the Government in pushing economic reforms, it might not hesitate to go with it in the curtailment of these liberties.

The appointment of the Constitution Review Commission has angered the religious minorities and the Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes because of the nature of the Government and various statements by the leaders of the sangh parivar. The intelligentsia is also not particularly amused.

The mounting anger of the people over their own plight and the fear that conditions might become even more miserable are being reflected in various ways. Conferences of the socially and educationally backward have been held with a view to bringing about their consolidation. Trade unions are preparing for strikes. The sarvodayites organised a one-day fast on January 26 and are meeting again for formulating a more sustained action. The Khadi Mission, dismayed that khadi and village industries are getting a rough deal from the Government, is going to draw up some action plan shortly. The Rashtriya Ekata Parishad leader, Mr. P. V. Rajagopal, has been traversing on foot almost the entire State of Madhya Pradesh to highlight the betrayal of the landless, particularly the tribals, by the State Government. The Kisan Sangharsh Samiti is holding a massive rally in Bhopal. Similar rallies of the kisans are being planned in other States. The Fishworkers' Federation has been organising protest meetings and has notified that it shall lead thousands of them in New Delhi in the second week of June.

In this context, the activism of the former Prime Minister, Mr. V. P. Singh, has invited particular attention.The old constituency of the religious minorities and the Mandal castes which he had created by combining the appeals of secularism and social justice had got fractured, owing to his inaction forced on him by ill-health and by the desertion of close colleagues. The equation which the erstwhile Janata Dal under his leadership had struck with the regional parties has also disappeared; and, most of the constituents of his National Front are now partners in the ruling National Democratic Alliance. He has, however, embarked on a course of consolidating the poor and is firming up his contacts with the Left parties.

No less significant is the coming together of the four ex-Prime Ministers, Messrs Chandra Shekar, I. K. Gujral, H. D. Deve Gowda and V. P. Singh. Yet, in respect of the power play among Opposition parties, none of them has much of a role. In that respect, the players, apart from the Left parties which are confined to only three States, are the Congress(I), the Samajwadi Party, the RJD, the BSP, the NCP, the RPI factions in Maharashtra, the AIADMK, the TMC, the Lok Dal led by Ajit Singh and the AGP. Some of them are the pieces of the then united Janata Dal; and the four former Prime Ministers were all part of it. It is inconceivable that their combined weight too could scramble that unscrambled egg. Moreover, even if that consolidation comes about, the BSP would continue to operate independently and affect the electoral picture in Uttar Pradesh, which is going for polls next year. Moreover, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Haryana and Orissa, for instance, would remain out of their pale, even if a broad opposition unity comes about which does not include the Congress(I).

The Congress(I), unfortunately, had not only rubbed all these ex- Prime Ministers the wrong way, it did not exactly endear itself to the Samajwadi Party either. Moreover, the Party has failed to provide effective opposition in Parliament. Its present leadership cannot provide the axis for a larger unity of the Opposition parties, but it alone is capable of holding the party together. It is a dilemma, which is not easy to resolve. It has other problems, too. While the party's central leadership is keen to recapture its pro-poor stance, its State Governments are committed to the economic reforms

It is this confusing picture which could lead the people to desperation. For, if a political consolidation in the Opposition does not take place, then, the possibility of ordered protests, much less ordered change, recedes. The National Alliance of People's Movements has so far channelled popular protests, whether on environmental issues, displacements owing to big dams, growing unemployment among fish workers or those deprived otherwise, for it is an umbrella organisation. Possibly, groups of similar nature and cherishing the same objectives can join hands. Possibly, an apex federation of groups which are not associated with political parties can come about. Mostly, they consist of those communists, socialists, Gandhians and humanists who got disillusioned with the working of political parties. It is obvious, however, that pressure groups alone cannot achieve the objective of changing the direction of Governments' policies wholly, though they can certainly win a few concessions.

Is it then possible that at least the people's action groups, such as the NAPM, the Rashtriya Ekata Parishad, the Bharat Jan Andolan, several kisan organisations, dalit and adivasi groups and those naxalites who have recognised the futiliy of armed insurrection, would join hands with the Left parties and the four former Prime Ministers in the quest for change? Mutual mistrusts have to be subordinated to the exigencies of the deteriorating situation. If people's protests become more strident and organised, and the political leadership is able to respond and actively participate, then various possibilities can arise.

A massive assertion by the people, based on a concrete alternative set of policies and throwing up new leaders who will work with the established ones, would enable all like-minded parties to consolidate. This has happened before also, and is not out of the realm of possibilities. It could help some present allies of the BJP to pull out of the NDA, because even now fissures in the alliance are quite apparent. Moreover, Mr. Dattopant Thengadi who had raised his voice against Sankhya Vahini might, along some of his followers, assert even more strongly within the sangh parivar and lead a revolt in it. Within the Congress(I) too, there might be elements, which have realised the havoc that the economic reforms have wrought. They, too, can contribute.

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