Some Tigers may have sneaked into Jaffna

By Atul Aneja

NEW DELHI, MAY 16. Despite stiff resistance by Government troops, some cadres of the LTTE may have slipped into Jaffna town, further restricting Colombo's military options.

According to highly-placed Government sources, some Tigers have breached the Sri Lankan defence line in a few places around Jaffna in the last couple of days, and could be present in small numbers inside the town. Consequently, the presence of the LTTE in populated areas is negatively affecting Sri Lanka's military options. Specifically, the Sri lankan Air Force, may now find landing fire on civilians unavoidable while gunning for the LTTE. The LTTE's incremental military gains leave the Sri Lankan forces with two key alternatives. For instance, they could decide to strengthen the defence of Jaffna. This would mean sending reinforcements, provided the supply arteries feeding into the town remain open in the next few days. But given the small size of the Sri Lankan forces, the quantum of troops which can be pushed in may be limited, and therefore insufficient for the task.

Credible defence of Jaffna may also necessitate the switch-over of forces from the heavily-defended Palaly air base area, which is of high strategic importance. In case this happens, it could have serious negative consequences for the overall defence of the Jaffna peninsula.

Analysts here point out that the Sri Lankan forces, despite the reinforcements, may barely manage to save the town for long. In fact, some Sri Lanka watchers are of the view that the LTTE's inability to wrest control of Jaffna as of now, may not depend so much on the quality of the Sri Lankan resistance but more on its own inherent limitations.

The LTTE, basically a guerrilla outfit, may simply not have enough forces to overrun the town, they say. However, the shortfall in numbers should not make the Government troops complacent. Inputs received here indicate that there has been a spurt in LTTE recruitment after the fall of the strategic Elephant Pass last month. This extra intake may have a telling effect in the coming days, as the raw recruits get familiar with the rigours of the war. A tactical withdrawal from Jaffna and consolidation in the ``fortress defences'' of Palaly could be another option which the Sri Lankan forces can exercise. Analysts, in fact, point out that consolidation in Palaly, the heart of the maintaining forces in the entire peninsula, makes much more military sense. With an assured hold over the Palaly air base and the neighbouring Kankesunturai naval base, the Sri Lankan forces have a good chance of recovering lost ground on the peninsula later.

On the contrary, any thinning of forces in Palaly, the likely hub of Sri Lankan rearguard action, could spell disaster for the Government in the long run.

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