Power vacuum looms large in South Lebanon

By Kesava Menon

MANAMA (BAHRAIN), MAY 24. Israel abandoned its last outpost in Lebanese territory last night and a militia that had co-operated with its occupation has ceased to exist. Lebanese citizens, who had not visited their homes in the occupied zone, in many cases for as many as 22 years, have returned to their villages and the country's territorial integrity has been almost wholly restored. But there is an ``authority vacuum'' in the territory and this could have repercussions on the internal situation as well as on regional peace.

In every instance, the Lebanese, who stayed out of the occupied zone for the past two decades, have returned accompanied by fighters of the Hizbollah or Shia Amal militias. There is, as yet, no sign that the Lebanese army or police forces have moved into the territory to establish the writ of the Government. It is not even clear whether the Lebanese Government is in any hurry to re-establish its writ in the territory. Other than the militiamen who have been fighting Israel all the 22 years, the only armed force in the territory is the U.N. Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL). But UNIFIL lacks the numbers, the means or the specific orders (as distinguished from the general mandate) to impose its will in the territory.

This makes for a potentially dangerous situation. Hizbollah has never specifically said it would stop attacking Israel if and when the occupation of Lebanon was ended. It had said that its attacks on Israelis would continue so long as the occupation lasted. Technically, from the Hizbollah's point of view, the Israeli withdrawal is not complete since the Jewish State continues to maintain posts in an area called the Shebaa farms. Like the Lebanese and Syrian Governments, Hizbollah claims that this parcel of territory belongs to Lebanon while Israel claims that this is Syrian territory wrested by it from Syrian troops in 1967.

The Shebaa farm issue could provide Hizbollah with the justification for continuing to fight Israel. There are, however, signs that the Lebanese Government is not making much of an issue about this parcel of territory and Hizbollah might take a cue from the Government in Beirut.

Some Hizbollah fighters and Lebanese civilians were killed in the last three days as Israel hurriedly pulled out its troops from the occupied zone. These deaths were caused by Israeli fire from helicopters, tanks and artillery paces as barrages were laid down to cover the retreat.

Hizbollah has promised that it would, as it has always done, target civilians in Israel if any civilians were killed on its side. It has also said that its fight will not be over as long as Israel kept two of its leading cadre as prisoners in Israel. Residents in the northern parts of Israel have been ordered to the bomb shelters amid fears that Hizbollah could launch a barrage of rockets in retaliation. Israeli military spokesmen and Cabinet members have warned that they will retaliate with massive force not only against Hizbollah but Lebanese and Syrian interests as well.

Currently, the Hizbollah guerillas are the heroes of the Arab world. They can claim, with some exaggeration but to the acclaim of the Arab world as a whole, that they are the first Arab fighting force to have militarily ousted Israel from territory they have occupied. Hizbollah's collective tail is up and it has also made the cause of the Palestinians (especially the refugees in Lebanon) its own. The militia therefore does have the will and some political arguments for carrying forward the fight into Israel itself. However, Hizbollah has much to gain on account of its victory in the realm of Lebanese politics. It could also stand to lose much goodwill among the villagers who have newly returned to their homes if Israel subjects them to retaliatory shell fire.

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