Rafsanjani can still fight detractors

By Kesava Menon

MANAMA (BAHRAIN), MAY 28. After weeks of agonising uncertainty, the first Iranian Parliament to be dominated by reformers since the 1979 Islamic Revolution has begun its work.

The beginning yesterday was auspicious in one sense because the former Speaker and President, Ayatollah Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, refused to take membership over the week-end and thus rendered the initial shake-out of posts less convulsive than they might have been. However, Mr. Rafsanjani holds on the top post in another constitutional body which can function as a super Parliament and given his cleverness and ruthlessness it is certain that he has merely chosen another means to fight his detractors.

Iran's state radio reported on Friday that Mr. Rafsanjani had declined to accept the parliamentary seat that an election supervising body had allotted to him. He had sought to be elected to one of the 30 seats in the Teheran parliamentary constituency.

On election day - February 18 - it had appeared that he would find it very difficult to get the 25 per cent of the vote that would enable him to get a seat in the first round. Initial counts confirmed the impression formed from the streets but the Interior Ministry which actually conducts the polls was under pressure from the outset. Within a few days, it was reported that after a re-count Mr. Rafsanjani had squeaked in to Parliament with the last of the 30 seats.

At this point, the conservative-dominated election supervising body, the Council of Guardians, got in to the act. Claiming that there had been large-scale discrepancies in the Teheran vote, the Council refused to declare the results from the Iranian capital till three months after the election.

Three-recounts had already been undertaken by the Council and they seemed to be readying for more, or for the annulment of the Teheran vote, when the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Syed Ali Khamenei, stepped in and told the Council that enough was enough. The Council declared the Teheran result within a day or so of Mr. Khamenei's intervention.

By the time they had done their job, Mr. Rafsanjani's electoral performance was seen to have dramatically improved.

He was declared to be a winner in the first round itself and the twentieth highest vote-getter in Teheran (that is after almost a quarter of the votes had been declared invalid). Whether Mr. Rafsanjani would have found himself further up the list if the Guardians had carried on with more recounts is now moot.

But the twentieth position was obviously not respectable enough for Mr. Rafsanjani to seriously consider a bid for Speakership.

Technically, he had every right to contest the Speakership and the conservatives, reduced to anywhere between a third and a quarter of the seats in Parliament, had no other obvious candidate for the post.

More significantly, he was perhaps the only person who could have, on account of his experience in back-room deals and political networking, blunted the effectiveness of the reform majority. With his refusal to accept the post, the conservatives would appear to have given up hope of challenging the reformers inside Parliament.

In a letter announcing his decision, as quoted by the state television, Mr. Rafsanjani said, ``I apologise to the people but given the extent of the propaganda against me, I am obliged to give up my mandate. There are still some ambiguities and doubtful points regarding the Teheran election results which enemies of the people could use as excuses for harming the unity of the forces faithful to the revolution''.

If nothing else the letter underlines that Mr. Rafsanjani is miffed at the fact that the Teheran recount was not completed. If the logic is extended a little further it would even show that Mr. Rafsanjani is also not very happy with Mr. Khamenei, the person who ordered a halt to the re-count.

Mr. Rafsanjani will wield power as the head of the Expediency Council. This Council mediates between Parliament and the Guardians (who can reject legislation if they think it is against Islam or the principles of the revolution) when they are in conflict.

But the powers of the Expediency Council were defined (in as much as they are) through an agreement between Mr. Rafsanjani and Mr. Khamenei when the former was President.

It is not at all certain that the Supreme Leader, who is the over-arching authority in the Iranian system cannot cut the Council down to size. But then Mr. Rafsanjani is also a powerful member of the Assembly of Experts, which chooses the Leader.

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Section  : International
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