Younger leaders in W. Asia cope with challenges

By Kesava Menon

MANAMA (BAHRAIN), JUNE 18. If, as expected, Mr. Bashar al-Assad becomes President of Syria he will be the latest in a string of Arab leaders to take the reins of power in their respective countries.

While the five younger generation leaders who have ascended to the top positions in their countries within the last few years did so with a lot of hope attached to their prospects, their performance has not necessarily matched the expectations. The initial euphoria has had to be adjusted down and the weight of the institutional impediments has become more apparent.

Qatar's Amir Sheif Hamad bin Khalifa al Thani was the first of the new generation Arab leaders to take over when he ousted his father in 1995. Sheikh Hamad took charge amidst the hope that he would more effectively manage the huge wealth of natural gas and that he would usher in some democratic reform. Despite some fluctuations in the market and contractual hiccups, the development of the natural gas sector has not faltered too much.

Some ambitious programmes, such as a plan to ship gas to Jordan and onwards to Israel, never took off mainly because regional political developments did not pan out as expected. The fact that regional developments did not proceed according to Sheikh Hamad's initial projections also ensured that Qatar's efforts to open relations with Israel or to pull the rest of the Arab world along with its friendlier approach to Iraq did not come off. For all his pains, Sheikh Hamad has earned something of a reputation as a regional political maverick.

King Abdullah II of Jordan was the next of the younger generation to take over when his father suddenly changed the succession in early 1999. The new Jordanian monarch was known more for his abilities as a soldier and there were doubts whether he would show the administrative ability and political acumen to ensure stability in his country. On this score, King Abdullah has succeeded since Jordan has remained stable and the intricate balances between the ethnic groups within it has not been disturbed. The young King has also shown that he has the necessary toughness by cracking down on a groups of Islamic extremists.

However, the hopes that King Abdullah would usher in a new era of economic development have not been fulfilled. The King had made some dramatic efforts at cleansing the administration, travelling incognito to various government institutions in the country and catching inept officials red-handed. But there has not been much evidence of clear direction and strategic decision-making. There are as yet no signs that the King will soon deliver on initial hopes of speedier democratisation.

Bahrain's Amir Sheikh Hamad bin Isa al Khalifa has perhaps been one Arab leader who has done better than was expected of him when he took over in 1999. Sheikh Hamad was not as young as the others when he took over and he had been the effective commander-in- chief of the Bahrain Defence Forces when he took over. It was thought that on account of his military background and age he would be rigid, especially in his dealings with the restive Shia population in the country. In happy contrast to these expectations, Sheikh Hamad was very conciliatory to the Shias and has been very successful in restoring calm to the island considering the disturbances which rocked it from 1994 till about 97.

Again contrary to expectations, Sheikh Hamad authorised the effort to patch up relations with Qatar. The two sheikhdoms have been locked in a territorial dispute and the new effort was aimed at resolving these differences through the bilateral route. However Qatar's maverick behaviour put paid to the hopes when they reinvigorated their efforts at the International Court of Justice.

Internally, the hopes for change are still fresh. It has been promised that women will be included as members of the Shoora Council (an appointed consultative body that does some of the work of a Parliament) before its next session later this year. By 2004, the Shoora Council is to be made into an elected body.

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Section  : International
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